The Chiefs take on the Raiders in Kansas City in an AFC West divisional matchup on Black Friday. Here are some Patrick Mahomes prop bets to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
Here are Patrick Mahomes’ current prop bet odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: o/u 250.5 passing yards, o/u 1.5 passing touchdowns, and o/u 16.5 rushing yards. Mahomes is +400 to score a touchdown, +4000 to score 2+ touchdowns, and +1700 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs at 10-1 and is in the thick of the MVP race. Statistically, it has not been his best season. The Chiefs have cut things close in a lot of games. But the reason the Chiefs are at 10-1 is because Mahomes always makes the winning play or conducts the winning drive when his team needs him. Against the Raiders, he should have a lot of success passing the ball. Earlier this season, Mahomes had 262 passing yards and two touchdowns against Mahomes.
The Raiders are a good matchup for opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders rank 24th in opponent completion percentage, 27th in defensive dropback/EPA, and 27th in defensive dropback success rate. Their secondary has been vulnerable all season and their numbers are even skewed a bit favorably because they have been trailing in so many games, that teams are not forced to be really aggressive offensively against them. There is a lot of familiarity between these teams, but that is not necessarily a good thing for Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes is 11-2 against the Raiders in his career and has thrown for more than 250 yards in eight of those 11 games.
That is why my favorite prop bet for this game is Patrick Mahomes to clear 250.5 passing yards. He had 262 against the Raiders earlier this season and has eclipsed this number in 72% of his career games against the Raiders. Mahomes has also gone well over this number in four of his past five games. In recent weeks, Mahomes’ passing attempts and yards have skyrocketed, coinciding with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. The return of Isiah Pacheco should actually bring more balance to the offense so that he can push the ball down the field. Mahomes dominates the AFC West and should do so again on Black Friday.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes o250.5 Passing Yards (-120)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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