Thanksgiving has come and gone, and now we are less than a month away from Christmas. This is the part of the season where the men separate themselves from the boys. We have 11 games on Sunday, followed by the Browns and Broncos on Monday Night Football. Despite the three games on Thanksgiving and the Black Friday game, there are still plenty of opportunities left to hit some prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below are some of my favorite bets for this weekend’s action.
OVER Picks
WR Nico Collins Over 83.5 Rec Yds (-115)
This is by far my favorite bet of the weekend. This total simply isn’t enough for Collins, who had his best game of the season against the Jaguars earlier this year. He caught 12 passes for 151 yards and a touchdown in that matchup. Now, he’s matched up against them again, and the Jacksonville secondary has not gotten any better. The Jags rank last in the NFL against the pass, giving up 278.3 yards per game.
Regardless of matchup, Collins has gone over this total in five of his seven games this season. This is an elite matchup for an elite player, and this line should be closer to 100 in my opinion.
WR A.J. Brown Over 88.5 Rec Yds (-115)
In need of another elite wideout with a great matchup in Week 13? Look no further than A.J. Brown. The Eagles face the Ravens this week, and Baltimore ranks 31st in the league against the pass, only trailing the Jags. Brown has hit this total in five of his eight games this season, so he’s in a similar position to Collins where this would still be a good bet even against a good-average pass defense.
The Ravens being putrid against the pass is just the cherry on top for this bet, and I think Brown will clear this total easily. Don’t be shocked if he goes over the century mark for the 5th time this season.
RB Bucky Irving Over 56.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Rachaad White has not led Tampa Bay in rushing attempts since Week 7, so it feels like a safe bet that Irving will either get the same amount of carries or more than White in Week 13. Tampa Bay has a great matchup this week, facing the Panthers who rank dead last against the run. Irving has gotten 25 carries over the last two weeks, and with that kind of volume again on Sunday, I’d be shocked if he did not hit his over.
Irving is clearly the better running back, and the stats show it. His 5.4 yards per carry is good enough for 7th in the NFL, compared to 3.7 for White. If Irving gets double-digit carries for the third straight week, I believe this over should be no problem for him.
UNDER Picks
QB Geno Smith Under 235.5 Pass Yards
Smith has gone over this total in seven of his 11 games this season, however, I think the former Jets QB will struggle a little more than usual in his return to MetLife Stadium. The Jets are not good at much, but they are elite against the pass and have one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
New York is second in the league against the pass, only allowing 174.9 yards per game. However, they are even better at home, with that average going all the way down to 141.4 pass yards per game at MetLife stadium, which is the best mark in the NFL. I’d be shocked if Smith went nearly 100 yards over the Jets’ defense average in this one. I think Seattle will have much more success on the ground this Sunday.
TE Isaiah Likely Under 25.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Likely got off to a great start this season, with 111 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs all the way back in Week 1. In the 10 games since it’s been much more of a struggle, with him averaging 20.9 yards per game. He has hit the over on this total in five of his 10 games since, and that includes him hitting the over with 26 yards twice, and 27 yards against the Commanders.
Likely has not been a big part of the offense since the opening game, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. To make matters worse, the Ravens face the Eagles who rank third in the NFL against the pass.
RB James Conner Under 45.5 Rush Yds (-115)
I would definitely consider myself a James Conner fan, but this is a tough spot for him. He is coming off of back-to-back games going under this total, and here comes the best rush defense in football. The Vikings have been elite against the run all season, only allowing 74.7 yards per game.
Conner could be in for a tough afternoon, and I would expect the Cardinals to try and challenge the Vikings through the air, as Minnesota ranks 28th against the pass. Conner is coming off two disappointing games in a row and has the toughest matchup possible this Sunday. This might be the only spot in which fading him is acceptable.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
