Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions, and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges, which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full contest sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription, you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
I decided to sort the QB results by exposure today so we can get some context around who is found in the winning lineups:
- Anthony Richardson ($5,500) is the top overall option and by far the most edge at the position. His exposure rate of 46.80% is more than 2x that of the second place option while his projected ownership is 14% giving him an edge of +32.75%.
- Justin Herbert ($5,600) is a distant second in exposure rate at 21.10% but still pulls together a positive edge offered at 2.02%.
- Sam Darnold ($5,900) and Matthew Stafford ($5,800) each come in with exposure rates of around 11%, though they sit around neutral in terms of edge due to ownership projections in the same range.
- Bringing up the back is Lamar Jackson ($8,000) with a 4.20% exposure rate and a slightly negative edge offered at -1.06%.
RB Edge Distributions
Above are the top-five options are RB in terms of exposure rate in winning lineups.
The highest edge (and projected ownership) goes to Chase Brown. His edge is only +1.20%, which isn’t great, but his price is just egregious based on his averages and workload, so it’s a spot you are likely just going to eat and the contest sims are happy to agree. This is one of those spots where some people would look at him being a neutral value and not prioritize him, but the exposure rate is much more important in context.
Of this group, Bijan Robinson ($7,300) is the only one with a negative edge offered. His exposure rate of 14.70% in winning lineups is not high enough to offset his projected ownership of 17.85%, leading to an edge of -3.15%. Especially considering the other options available above him, he looks like a pretty easy avoid at ownership.
The highest positive edge here goes to Aaron Jones with a +10.84% mark. This is bolstered by a relatively low ownership projection of 8.86% that is less than half his exposure rate of 19.70%.
WR Edge Distributions
For WRs we went ahead and sorted the Paydirt contest sims by edge offered.
The highest edge and exposure rate for any WR by a longshot is Adonai Mitchell ($3,900). His edge is +38.62% thanks to a massive 47.60% exposure rate and low ownership projection of 8.98%. I have no confidence that he stays this low owned by lock and fully expect him to end up in the 20-25% owned range, but the sims think even that is only half of what he deserves. He’s the best play on the slate bar none.
Of the rest of the group, they are mostly just tied to the highest exposure QBs from the sims. The only outlier is Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,500), who has been priced down due to worse QB play. His edge offered is +5.71% and his projected ownership is a middling 12.69% so we have a little wiggle room if you want to utilize him.
There are three WRs with ownership projections of 15%+ this week that carry heavy negative edge numbers in the contest sims. You’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see who you should fade on the high end!
TE Edge Distributions
Above you will find the five TEs with the highest exposure rates from the contest sims.
Of this group I think that Cade Otton ($4,500) is the most interesting. He took a hit last week from averaging 20% of the targets (L5) to just 11%. I think people will make some assumptions that it was because of the return of Mike Evans, but I think more of it was game circumstance. While he shouldn’t be expected to continue being the focal point of the offense, I do think that the contest sims are right to say he is valuable (12% exposure rate) and slightly undervalued (+1.89% edge).
The TE with the largest positive edge here is Will Dissly at +7.14%. For the most part this is another week where you want to pair your TE with your QB and just go along with your day.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
You’ll notice in the QB frame that all but Lamar Jackson was less than $6k with the best option on the board, Anthony Richardson, being just $5,500. The contest sims made sure to force home the point this week: There are cheap QBs that project well and we should be using them.
The general build path suggested by the contest sims revolves around paying down at QB, up at RB for someone like Alvin Kamara, and then building out your stack with WR/TE. The issue with that is it’s going to be a very common path (evidenced by the projected ownerships across the board), which will make relative value harder to find. You’ll have to be smart about the way that you build around the chalk pieces and make sure to include guys like Adonai Mitchell, Aaron Jones, and Zach Ertz, who are low enough owned to give you some win equity.
Overall I think this slate makes for a better single entry and small field slate where you don’t need to beat tens of thousands of people who are all building in similar ways, but you’ll be able to set up some nice rules in optimizers to leverage the popular stacks and RBs as well. It’s a week where smart pivots will win the day!
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.