GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 13.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Chargers at Falcons
Justin Herbert ($5,600) + Ladd McConkey ($6,100) + Quentin Johnston ($5,000) + Darnell Mooney ($5,600)
The Falcons/Chargers game has shootout written all over it. The Falcons’ defense has regressed badly after a decent start and have now allowed opposing QBs a 71% completion rate on the season, the worst mark in the NFL by a large margin. With Atlanta also dead-last in sacks, this is a serious smash spot for Justin Herbert, who could push for his first 3+ TD game of the season in the comfy confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Herbert’s passing efficiency has dipped the last couple of weeks, but the Falcons don’t possess the same kind of pass rush the Ravens do, who sacked the Chargers QB multiple times last week to stop drives. The increased rushing upside Herbert’s shown this season is also a huge plus in this game given his salary is still well under $6,000. Over his last three games, he’s now averaged six carries and 42 yards per game, making him the preferred signal caller to build around.
In terms of receivers to stack with Herbert, starting with rookie Ladd McConkey is a must. He’s got underrated explosiveness, the ability to break the ankles of any corner, and faces a defense void of any shutdown corner. After the Chargers only threw the ball his way six times last week in a game that saw them play from behind for most of the second half, I can see him being fed relentlessly in this A+ matchup.
The sadist in me also likes including Quentin Johnston in any Chargers game stack. He was awful against the Ravens, but remains the Chargers’ best field-stretcher and has connected with the strong-armed Herbert for TDs six times this season. Coming off a zero-catch game (five targets) it’s unlikely he’ll be very highly-owned even in this matchup, and the Falcons have allowed the third-most TDs to opposing WRs this season. He likely bounces back with a strong game this week.
On the Falcons side, Bijan Robinson ($7,300) is always in the fantasy conversation, but the Chargers have a top-tier rush defense and Atlanta doesn’t run the ball with the same efficiency that the Ravens do. I’d rather target the upside at WR, a position the Chargers defense has struggled to slow down of late. Los Angeles has now allowed seven TDs to opposing WRs over their four games, with several of those plays coming on long stretch sort of plays.
Enter Darnell Mooney, who is in the midst of a true breakout season. He’s averaging 14.8 yards per catch with a somewhat limited QB, which is eye-catching in its own right. Against this secondary, which doesn’t have a very deep set of cover corners, Mooney feels likely to pick up where he left off after an injury derailed him a couple of weeks ago.
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson ($5,500)
I’m sorry but this price seems like a huge overreaction to last week. Richardson completed just 11 passes on 28 attempts against the Lions but had 70+ yards of completions called back due to penalties, and also had a dropped TD. He clearly played better than the final stat line suggests and now gets a matchup against the Patriots, whose defense has given up an incredible four passing TDs to each of the last two QBs they’ve faced.
Richardson’s rushing upside alone makes him a viable GPP target at this price against anyone, but the Patriots being the opponent makes this a great time to pay down at QB. The Colts do have some injury issues at WR this week (Downs and Pierce are questionable) but Michael Pittman and Adonai Mitchell (see below) should both be active and give Richardson enough downfield upside to bring home the big game he should have posted in his last appearance.
Running Back
Higher End: Tony Pollard ($6,300)
The Commanders’ rush defense has cratered over the second half of the year. They’re now 28th in EPA per rush and for the season have allowed 11 rushing TDs (the fifth-most in the league) and eight TDs to opposing RBs over their last seven games.
Pollard also enters this game running well. He took 24 carries for 119 yards and a TD last week against a tougher rush defense in the Texans, and seems completely over a toe issue that bugged him mid-year. At just $6,300, he may lose a few more touches this week to Tyjae Spears but has been the preferred SDD-back for the Titans all season, making his salary look a little too cheap given this matchup.
He’s a good core play, regardless of the contest you’re entering, but if you’re paying up for WRs he’s a great RB1 given his sub-$6,500 salary.
Lower End: Jaylen Warren ($5,500)
Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last two games and that’s led to increased usage over his last few starts. Warren out-snapped lead back Najee Harris 39-27 in their loss to the Browns and over their last three games the 26-year-old has only played nine fewer snaps than Harris (100 Warren to 109 Harris). Last week against Cleveland, he was also given his first carry of the year inside the five and promptly converted it into a three-yard rushing TD.
The matchup this week should see both Steelers RBs heavily involved. The Bengals are 31st in success rate vs the run and allowed two TDs to the Chargers RBs in their last game. As the better receiver, Warren is also far more game script proof than his backfield mate, and he enters this game having averaged 3 receptions and 25 yards receiving over his last three starts.
As a cheaper RB option under 6k, it’s not hard to see him potentially outperforming this week and delivering good value for those looking to build high salary at WR and low at RB.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Puka Nacua ($7,600)
I’m not sure how you can look at this spot for Puka Nacua and not be insanely bullish. The Saints traded away their best corner in Marshon Lattimore and come into this week having just allowed 142 yards and a TD to the Browns’ primary receiver in Jerry Jeudy.
Nacua is not only a better receiver than Jeudy but, has a better QB to work with in Matthew Stafford, who comes into this contest having thrown 12 TDs over his last five games. The second-year WR has only caught one of those TD passes over that span, which seems quite unlucky if we’re being honest, and a trend that seems likely to flip against a defense without a true shutdown corner.
The potential game flow with two poor-ish defenses and good offensive catalysts on both sides means this game has good DFS potential to begin with, so Nacua may not just add to his TD total, but push for his yardage and reception ceilings as well. Either way, at under $8,000, he’s the preferred pay-up target for me on a slate with multiple elite WRs in juicy spots.
Lower End: Adonai Mitchell ($3,900)
The Colts will likely need Mitchell to step up this week. Josh Downs is almost certainly out, and both Ashton Dulin and Alec Pierce didn’t practice Thursday and are looking highly questionable. Mitchell has been the de facto number four WR for the Colts buried behind some pretty good talent, but will likely be in line to play significant snaps this week.
Mitchell played 94% of the snaps back in Week 10 and promptly put together a decent game, converting all six of his targets into catches for 71 yards. The second-round pick has good versatility and seems likely to take some of Josh Downs’ slot snaps against a very weak Patriots secondary that has now allowed eight passing TDs over their last two games. At under $4,000, Mitchell’s got the potential to be one of the best values on the slate this week and makes for a great GPP target, regardless of contest.
Tight End
Taysom Hill ($5,000)
TE this week looks somewhat bleak. There aren’t a ton of cheap values floating around thanks to the four holiday games we’ve already had, and even the mid-tier options don’t offer a ton of upside. I don’t mind paying up this week. With Taysom Hill in a potentially explosive game environment (49.5 game total, 2.5 spread) against a Rams defense that has allowed the 10th most receiving yards to opposing TEs, he’s the preferred target for me.
Hill’s production has gone up since the coaching change in New Orleans. In the Saints’ Week 11 matchup vs the Browns, he saw a career-high 10 targets, bringing in eight catches for 50 yards, while rushing for 138 yards and three TDs. I’m not expecting those kind of fireworks again, but the new regime in New Orleans has made clear they want Hill to be a big part of the game plan on offense, and with their receiver core decimated, it’s possible he again pushes for six-to-eight targets and five-to-10 rushes. That’s upside that can win tournaments and is worth paying up for given the lack of elite value this week.
Defense/Special Teams
New York Jets ($2,500)
The Jets’ season has been a bit of a circus, but despite the down year, they do remain one of the more talented defensive units in the league. New York is sixth in sacks per game, and while their INT rate is way down this season, they have been able to create some fumbles with their relentless pressure.
The Seahawks love to pass (4th in dropback rate) and while that can lead to exciting plays, it’s also caused them to turn the ball over at a high rate. Geno Smith leads the league with 12 INTs and has also been sacked the third-most of any QB in the league. You don’t have to love or even like the Jets, but this is a great spot for their defense to potentially show some life at home, where they have averaged a stout 8.2 DKFP per game this year.
For DFS, if you need a cheap option, there is little doubt that the Jets provide some of the best upside of any unit in this range for Week 13.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
