The Dolphins travel to Green Bay to face the Packers on Thanksgiving. Here are the best Tyreek Hill prop bets to explore on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tyreek Hill Prop Bets
Here are Tyreek Hill’s current prop bet lines at DraftKings Sportsbook: o/u 5.5 receptions and o/u 63.5 receiving yards. Hill is +140 to score a touchdown, +1100 to score 2+ touchdowns and +1000 to score the first touchdown of the game.
It has not been a great season for Tyreek Hill. The absence of Tua Tagovailoa for multiple weeks definitely hurt Hill and the rest of the Miami offense. However, even in recent weeks when the Dolphins have looked really sharp, Hill has not played a huge role. Jonnu Smith is emerging as the go-to guy for Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle has been the more explosive receiver. The running backs have also played a huge role, including in the passing game. Since his 80-yard touchdown in Week 1, Hill has not had a catch go for more than 30 yards. It has been a struggle for Hill the past couple of weeks, in particular, as he also deals with a wrist injury that has him at less than 100%.
The Packers are a tough test for the struggling Hill. Green Bay is eighth in the league in defensive EPA/dropback, doing a really good job of limiting explosive plays this season. Green Bay is in the bottom 10 in the league in receiving yards allowed to running backs and has given up the second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. They have struggled in short spaces, which is why they rank 26th in defensive success rate despite being eighth in defensive EPA/play. This should be a big game for De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith, but not so much for the Miami receivers.
Due to all of these factors, I am betting on Tyreek Hill to go under 63.5 receiving yards. Hill has gone under this number in three straight games and in 7 out of 11 games this season. Achane and Jonnu Smith continue to get more and more targets and, last week against the Patriots, Jaylen Waddle was the guy that Tua Tagovailoa looked for down the field. The deep pass game is becoming very rare in the Miami playbook and against Green Bay on the road in winter weather, this is not the time to change that up. Hill should stay under this number for the fourth straight game.
Pick: Tyreek Hill u63.5 receiving yards (-115)
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