After a long day of Thanksgiving festivities, football fans will be treated to a nightcap when the 5-6 Dolphins visit the 8-3 Packers at Lambeau Field. Ahead of this primetime clash in the frozen tundra, Green Bay is favored by 3.5 points, with the over/under set at 47.5 points.
Can Miami pull off the upset? Will the Pack stay alive in the NFC North race? While we don’t have those answers yet, there are more than a few savvy bets worth backing in this one. Here are three player props that could have you feeling thankful heading into the holiday weekend.
Jordan Love over 239.5 passing yards (-120)
The Packers are a good enough team to win games without Jordan Love carrying the offense, but having a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback helps. The four-year veteran has thrown for 2,244 yards and 18 touchdowns through nine games this season, getting back into a rhythm after suffering an MCL injury in Week 1. Miami’s defense is only giving up 197.5 passing yards per game, but that number doesn’t reflect the current state of the team.
Over the past three weeks, the Dolphins are giving up 236.0 passing yards, a direct result of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8. With a reinvigorated offense, opponents have been forced to keep up through the passing game. While the Packers are still favored in this one, they won’t be able to simply chew up clock like they did last Sunday against the Brandon Allen-led 49ers. Love has hit this line in two of the past three weeks, so he’s trending in the right direction for this over.
Jaylen Waddle over 3.5 receptions (-120)
As previously mentioned, the Dolphins are a different team when Tua Tagovailoa is behind center. A once-anemic offense has returned to prominence, making Miami’s top weapons relevant once more. That includes Jaylen Waddle, a talented wideout that has been overshadowed by the otherworldly Tyreek Hill. The former Pro Bowler’s production hasn’t been there this year, as he’s averaging just 49.8 receiving yards per game, well below his career mark of 67.8 YPG.
In spite of a disappointing season, things are turning around for Waddle. Since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8, the Alabama product has caught 19 catches for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers, while modest, are a clear improvement. It’s also important to note that the Dolphins dominated most of those contests, so they didn’t have much of a need to throw. That likely won’t be the case tonight. Throughout his career, Waddle has averaged 4.8 receptions per game when playing with Tua, so backing another solid showing from this duo could be the move.
Christian Watson over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)
Green Bay’s wide receiver room has been a difficult group to figure out over the past two seasons. Without a clear number one, Jordan Love has been prone to spread the ball around from week to week, making Packers games feel more like a game of roulette. However, we might be getting some clarity on Thursday, as Romeo Doubs is out with a concussion. That should open up more targets to the rest of the team’s pass-catchers.
That includes talented deep threat Christian Watson, perhaps the biggest boom-or-bust play in all of football. While the 25-year-old has undeniable talent, he’s never been the most consistent player. Tonight’s game should be one that the third-year pro thrives in, as he’s averaged 78.3 receiving yards in four career games without Doubs. Considering the lack of options Love is working with, he should find a way to involve his most talented weapon.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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