Is your tummy all full with leftovers? Has your Mom not stopped talking about Amazon’s amazing deals all day? Will that one Uncle just not leave? Sure sounds like it’s Black Friday.
Don’t worry. That’s now a good thing. Because we’ve got some late-afternoon football to enjoy. It’s the Raiders. It’s the Chiefs. Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Black Friday Showdown [$250K to 1st] (LV @ KC)
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Brock Bowers ($15,000 CP) – It would be hard to overstate just how vital Bowers has been to the Raiders’ offense since the departure of Davante Adams. However, this stat does pretty much tell the whole story. Since the beginning of Week 5, Bowers sits second in the NFL in receptions (54) and third in targets (72). Not among tight ends. Among all skill position players. Heck, the only two people who have had more reception opportunities in that span are CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase. That’s the level of No. 1 option we’re talking about here. It shouldn’t matter who is at quarterback for Las Vegas, either. Aidan O’Connell ($8,800) made his lone full-start of the season back in Week 6 against the Steelers. He targeted Bowers 10 times in that contest — twice as often as any other Raiders pass-catcher.
Travis Kelce ($14,400 CP) – Let’s write up both tight ends, shall we? What a time to be alive. Kelce’s output has been underwhelming in his last two games, but the veteran obviously still has something left in the tank, as he averaged 23.8 FPTS across Week 8, Week 9 and Week 10. For me, this just comes down to certainty of role. Despite a slow start, Kelce enters Week 13 ranking sixth in the league in catches (68) and 10th in overall targets (87). Also, while he’s only found the end zone twice, he’s tied for 10th in expected receiving touchdowns at 5.4 — the direct result of his 15 red zone targets which are tied for the fifth-most in the NFL. The scores will come. They have to. Let prospective owners fear the vulture that is Noah Gray ($3,600). I’ll take my chances with the future Hall of Fame TE.
FLEX Plays
Chiefs D/ST ($6,800) – It’ll be a chalk move, but I’m only human. It’s simply very difficult to trust the Raiders to do much with the football against Kansas City, especially with the aforementioned O’Connell taking snaps under center. The former fourth-round pick has started 12 NFL games. For his career, he’s thrown nine interceptions, lost four fumbles and been sacked 27 times. Woof. This is all reflected in Las Vegas’ implied team total for Week 13, which happens to be one of the lowest on the slate. This Chiefs defense is quite good, too. Kansas City comes into this contest allowing only 5.1 opponent yards per play — the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. The Chiefs also lead all AFC squads in hurry rate, as they’ve hurried the opposing QB on 10.3% of drop backs this season. A young quarterback under that much pressure seems like a formula for turnovers and sacks.
Ameer Abdullah ($5,800) – There’s two scenarios for Abdullah in this tilt: The one where Alexander Mattison ($6,200; ankle) returns from injury and the one where he doesn’t. Let’s start with the easy one. If Mattison is sidelined again on Friday, Abdullah is in a smash spot. Yes, the Chiefs have surrendered the fewest FPTS to opposing RBs so far this season, but volume is king in DFS. As the last man standing in Las Vegas’ backfield in Week 12, Abdullah logged an eye-popping 89.6% snap share. It wasn’t like he was standing around doing nothing, either. Abdullah finished the 29-19 loss with 13 touches, 65 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Now, if Mattison does return, I still believe Abdullah is viable. Conisder that the latter out-snapped the former 30-24 in Week 10 — the last time both men were healthy. Abdullah is also the more established pass-catcher, a trait that should come in handy with the Raiders likely playing in a very negative script.
Fades
Isiah Pacheco ($9,200) – All signs are pointing to Pacheco returning to action on Friday. In fact, he’s practiced in full on both Tuesday and Wednesday, indicating that we’ll see the explosive RB for the first time since Week 2. However, for as great as Pacheco’s presence is for the Chiefs in the long-term, I’m hesitant in the immediate. There is no injury discount baked into Pacheco’s price on this slate. At $9,200, he’s the fourth-most expensive asset, even more pricey than Kareem Hunt ($9,000), the man he’ll likely be splitting carries and snaps with. Hunt is the biggest red flag of all. When Pacheco got hurt, Hunt wasn’t even on Kansas City’s roster. Now he’s seen at least a 55% snap share in every Chiefs game since Week 5. I’d assume Pacheco is eased back in and this is a full-on committee in Week 13. If that’s the case, he’s way too overpriced to be viable.
THE OUTCOME
I don’t really need to sum up this matchup. Antonio Pierce already did that for me: “Let’s call a spade a spade. Best team in football against the worst team in football.” Who am I to argue with the Raiders’ head coach about his own football team?
Final Score: Kansas City 27, Las Vegas 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Black Friday Showdown [$250K to 1st] (LV @ KC)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
