There are three exciting games on the slate for Thanksgiving Day in the NFL. The Giants take on the Cowboys in an NFC East divisional battle, the Bears take on the Lions in an NFC North divisional matchup and the Packers host the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.
As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here’s a look at a few players who could have the inside track to outperform their price points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thanksgiving Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Quarterback
Jared Goff ($6,500)
Jared Goff is the top-priced quarterback of this slate. He’s someone I am willing to spend money on. Goff is 8th in the NFL in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. Goff has also been much better at home in his career than on the road, so getting Goff in Detroit is always an added bonus. The Lions are the highest-scoring offense in the league and they have scored 24+ points in eight straight games. They have played some really solid defenses during that stretch as well, who have still not been able to slow them down.
The Bears’ defense was strong earlier this season but they have started to waver over the past few weeks. Over the first six weeks of the season, they were 2nd in the league in EPA/dropback but since Week 7, they are 24th in that same metric. Jared Goff has had big games against the Bears in the past and has loved playing on Thanksgiving since becoming a Lion. Last season, Goff threw for 332 yards against Green Bay on Thanksgiving. In three Turkey Day starts in Detroit, Goff has six passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. Expect another big performance from Goff with his red-hot offense against a struggling Bears defense.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs ($7,000)
Josh Jacobs is having a fantastic first season in Green Bay. Jacobs ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Jacobs has provided a great run/pass balance to this offense and he has been playing his best football of the season over the past few weeks. In his past five games, he has seven total touchdowns and has 92 or more all-purpose yards in all five of those games.
At home this season, Jacobs is averaging an amazing 4.9 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Miami defense he’s facing on Thursday night ranks 16th in the league in yards per carry allowed. Jacobs should be able to break off a couple of big runs but will also just get a healthy dose of carries to wear down this Miami defense and help set up the passing game. After his three touchdown explosion last week, Jacobs should get a lot of action at the goal line and get into the end zone at least once in this game as well.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,800)
Last week against Tampa Bay was an unmitigated disaster for the Giants. They were facing the Buccaneers off a bye week in their first game since cutting Daniel Jones and everything went terribly wrong. However, this is a much better spot where the Giants will look to salvage their pride against a divisional rival who might be in a let down spot after a big upset win last week. Tommy DeVito got banged up last week and is questionable for this game. To be honest, it doesn’t make a massive difference whether DeVito or Drew Lock is in this game.
Both quarterbacks should look to feed Tyrone Tracy Jr. and use him as a safety blanket in this game. The Giants have issues on the offensive line and neither of these quarterbacks can really push the ball deep down the field. That should lead to Brian Daboll trying to scheme up easy ways to get the ball into Tracy’s hands quickly to make moves in space. Tracy had his second-best receiving game of the season last week and should have more production this week if the Giants can stay in a normal game script, unlike last week. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and Tracy should have success on the ground and through the air.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300)
Since Cooper Rush’s first start where there was an adjustment period, CeeDee Lamb has actually been very productive the past two weeks. Lamb is averaging nine catches for 80 yards over the past two games despite not having Dak Prescott under center. Rush is making quick throws and Mike McCarthy is scheming up ways to get Lamb open fast for Rush to hit him. Lamb is the only reliable receiving option for the Cowboys so he should continue to get fed double-digit targets every week.
Lamb also has a good matchup history with the Giants. Earlier this season when these teams faced off, Lamb had 98 receiving yards and a touchdown. Lamb should have another good performance against this Giants defense which ranks 26th in defensive EPA/dropback and has been lit up in recent weeks.
Jameson Williams ($6,100)
Jameson Williams has become the deep threat of choice for Jared Goff this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown and the running backs are getting the underneath receptions but Williams is among the best in the league in yards per catch. Williams ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per reception with over 20 yards per catch this season. Williams is a game-changing player because while so much attention needs to be focused everywhere else to slow down the Lions, Williams can get over the top of the defense and make a massive impact on just one play.
The Bears defense should struggle against this electric Lions offense. Chicago ranks 24th in EPA/dropback since Week 7 of this season. They are tied for 27th in the league in 20+ yards receptions allowed and tied for 28th in the league in 40+ yard receptions allowed. Giving up the deep shot has been an issue for them all season and that is bad news when facing Jameson Williams and Jared Goff at Ford Field.
Jaylen Waddle ($5,400)
Jaylen Waddle broke out for his biggest game of the season last week against New England and that could be a good sign of things to come for Waddle. Tyreek Hill’s production has not been great since Week 1 this season and is only getting worse since he picked up this wrist injury that has been an issue the past couple of weeks. Waddle had some really slow weeks this season, especially when Tua Tagovailoa was out, but he has started to progress positively the past few weeks, peaking last week with eight catches for 144 yards and a touchdown.
The Packers’ defense ranks 29th in dropback success rate this season, while Tua Tagovailoa ranks 1st among qualified quarterbacks in success rate. Tagovailoa should be able to use all of his targets to keep the Dolphins ahead of the chains. With all of the weapons at their disposal, that will confuse the Packers’ defense and allow Tagovailoa to hit shallow passes that Waddle can break into big gains or take some downfield shots that once went to Tyreek Hill but should now go to Waddle.
Tight End
Tucker Kraft ($3,700)
Tucker Kraft might not put up eye-popping numbers but he is a really reliable red zone target for Jordan Love, making him very valuable at this low of a price. Kraft is tied for the fifth-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL this season, with six touchdowns in his past eight games. Kraft is only averaging around three catches per game, but this is a good matchup for him against Miami. The Dolphins are giving up six catches per game to opposing tight ends, the second most in the league.
The Dolphins do a good job of limiting deep shots down the field, but that should leave Kraft as an outlet for Jordan Love. Kraft should get a few grabs in this game and as someone averaging 0.75 touchdowns per game, he is always a threat to get into the end zone. This should be a high-scoring game between these two teams and that will create red zone opportunities for Kraft to find that touchdown.
Flex
Keenan Allen ($5,100)
The Bears are going to have no choice but to throw the ball to keep up with the Lions’ offense. Detroit is the highest-scoring team in the NFL and the Bears defense will not be able to slow them down very much. That is going to force a pass-heavy game script out of Caleb Williams and the Bears. The main beneficiary of that game script could be Keenan Allen.
Allen just had his best game as a Chicago Bear last week against the Vikings. Allen had a season-high 15 targets, a season-high nine catches, and a season-high 86 receiving yards while also adding a touchdown. Caleb Williams has had some struggles with confidence over the past few weeks and a reliable target like Keenan Allen is exactly what a rookie quarterback needs in that scenario. Williams should look to find Allen a lot in this game after having success going to him last week. Allen should have another big game.
Defense & Special Teams
Cowboys D/ST ($3,100)
The Cowboys are a cheap defense because of their struggles this season but against Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock, you don’t need to be the ’85 Bears to have a big day. The Giants picked up just 245 yards and scored seven points last week against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled against a lot of other teams. The Giants’ offense ranks 26th in EPA/play and that is with Daniel Jones at the helm up until last week, and contrary to what some might think, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito are a significant drop off from Daniel Jones. This should be kind of an ugly game with backup quarterbacks on each side and it should be low scoring all around.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thanksgiving Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
