‘Tis the damn season. What would football be on Thanksgiving without a little fantasy stake to it? What would fantasy stake be without a festive helping of some byte-sized fantasy insights? Indeed—I’m adding to my regularly-scheduled programming this week by pumping out Three Lists of Three for NFL on TG. For, indeed, fantasy relevance orbits at least pockets of all of these games. Fantasy football must-starts and smash starts in some, breakout potential in others. All eyes on Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, CeeDee Lamb, Tyrone Tracy, and all your Dolphins and Packers in the evening game.
A reminder of the premise behind this specific series of lists: All I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them tomorrow night at homecoming in your old town, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? Digestible enough that you can set your beer down and head to the facilities and scroll while you wash your hands.
Let’s start with an appetizer: my top three fantasy football players most likely to score a touchdown on Thanksgiving. I explain the metric and the methodology below, but these are all players I believe are must-starts in season-long fantasy, represent proportionate or good value in DFS, and worth decent looks for Anytime TD bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pay ‘Em Dirt
A repeat of last week’s scientific abstract, here: We’re going to be referencing a metric in this piece called Goal Line Grade (GLG), developed by Kyle Senra, an analyst at FantasySixPack. It’s a way to evaluate potential goal-line efficiency at a team-and-matchup level by following these steps:
Quantify Offensive Goal-Line Performance:
- Measure each offense’s touchdown efficiency on plays run within the opponent’s five-yard line.
- Bucket the data into rushing and passing plays.
Analyze Opposing Defensive Goal-Line Metrics:
- Assess the total touchdowns and percentage allowed by each opposing defense near their goal line.
- Correlate these metrics with the respective offense’s performance.
Integrate Projected Scoring Market Data:
- Incorporate DraftKings Sportsbooks‘ implied/projected totals for each team.
Compute Goal Line Play Type Disparity:
- Determine the variance between each offense’s rushing and passing grades.
- Identify the dominant area (rushing or passing) for each team based on the calculated difference.
In doing so, we’re left with both a firm reading on an offense’s effectiveness and effective tendencies within the five-yard line. As such, we’ll be able to best determine which teams, in their Week 11 matchups, are the most efficient in goal-to-go situations.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
According to this model, the Detroit Lions and Jahmyr Gibbs have the highest GLG score for the week. Chicago’s entire defense—but especially its run support—has suffered ever since Jaquan Brisker got injured in early October. He’s now calling out the defense from home on Twitter, apparently, and all is very obviously not well in Chicago.
Gibbs’s chances to score are bolstered by Chicago’s 7.5% defensive rushing DVOA—third worst in the NFL. It doesn’t sound like Gibbs’s Thanksgiving ride-or-die David Montgomery will miss this game after a bit of a scare on Sunday. Montgomery is likely a surer bet to reach the end zone, but has significantly reduced payouts on DraftKings Sportsbook.
It’s a bit of a cupcake, here, but Sonic and Knuckles have legitimately become the offensive identity of the league’s most endearing team. Gibbs has a sterling 46.8% success rate on all his runs, and Montgomery has an even better 50.8%. That’s a coin flip for each player. And fortune favors the bravest among the Pride faithful.
Ride a Sonic and Knuckles Anytime TD parlay over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
I was surprised to see that CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys outpace the Bears (against a Lions secondary that’s been wildly susceptible all season long to fantasy wide receivers) in terms of passing GLG this week. Certainly, this has everything to do with Rico Dowdle’s ineffectiveness in the goal-to-go situations. He has five carries for zero yards within opponents’ 12-yard line. And he’s the Cowboys’ feature back.
This leaves Lamb, who’s certainly going to be eager for a consolation prize for this lost season on his holiday game this year. He only has four touchdowns through the air through eleven games this season. Compare that to the five interceptions that have come on his targets, and he’ll be looking to balance the scales.
We all know the Giants are in freefall, and superstars tend to grind their heels into bad teams to make a point.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Indeed, we’ve arrived at the time of year when Josh Jacobs typically was winning people weeks from their RB2 slots. This guy just heats up and heats up in the latter half of the season, and he’s absolutely molten right now. Coming off three touchdowns against the Niners hampered defense last week, and the Packers still firmly in the playoff mix, Jacobs is going to going to rip off a run into the end zone like a turkey leg from the whole roast bird.
Truly, though—Romeo Doubs is likely going to miss this game with a concussion. Christian Watson is about as trustworthy as green bean casserole from a distant relative. It might even be better if Dontayvion Wicks just skipped Thanksgiving altogether. The only pass-catcher I trust on the Packers is Tucker Kraft.
Hence: Jacobs. It’s Maddenville in Green Bay. Number eight in the cheese uniform is going to hit paydirt, no questions asked.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thanksgiving Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Thu)!
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DraftKings promoters may sometimes play on personal accounts in the games that advice is offered on. Personal views on the games and strategies above do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. DraftKings promoters may also deploy different players and strategies than what is recommended above. DraftKings promoters do not have access to any non-public information.
