These are my picks to win every Week 13 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 13 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Chiefs over Raiders- The Chiefs cut it close again last week, but as they have every week but one, they found a way to win. Patrick Mahomes has dominated divisional opponents during his career. Aidan O’Connell will be getting the start for Las Vegas after Gardner Minshew’s injury last week, which only decreases its chances of an upset. Isiah Pacheco’s return should also help the Chiefs control games better than they were earlier in the season. Mahomes will win again here.
Lions over Bears- The Lions have won nine games in a row heading into Thanksgiving Day against the Bears. Meanwhile, the Bears have lost five straight entering this matchup. The Bears’ defense is trending in the wrong direction and the offense is struggling to convert good drives into points. That is a recipe for disaster against Detroit, who is elite on both sides of the ball. The Detroit crowd will be great as always on Thanksgiving and the Lions will have too much firepower for the Bears.
Commanders over Titans- The Commanders have lost three straight games after such a brilliant start to their season. This is the perfect spot for them to get back on track. This is a major letdown spot for the Titans after their big upset win over a division rival last week. Despite that win, Will Levis’ turnover issues persisted, as he threw another pick-six last week. That key mistake that Levis makes and Daniels doesn’t should be the difference between winning and losing this game.
Bills over 49ers- With Brock Purdy still questionable for this game after missing last week, it is impossible to pick the 49ers in this game. Buffalo will be at home in winter weather where they are most comfortable after a bye week. This is the perfect spot for Buffalo to roll and continue its amazing season.
Broncos over Browns- The Broncos just keep on rolling and now they have a comfortable spot back home in Denver against the Browns. The Browns used all of Jameis Winston’s powers in the snow to pull off an amazing upset against the Steelers last week. However, that sets them up for a letdown spot here against Denver. The Broncos’ defense is the best in the NFL in EPA/dropback and should restrict Winston from throwing downfield. The Broncos will control this game and get a win at home.
Medium Confidence
Buccaneers over Panthers- The Bucs dominated the Giants with minimal effort last week. They should be fresh for a massive divisional game against the Panthers. Carolina is playing much better in recent weeks and almost upset Kansas City last week, but it will struggle to defend Tampa Bay with Mike Evans back. The Bucs are trying to chase down the Falcons in this divisional race and their divisional record is of the utmost importance in that race, so they should be fully focused to take on the Panthers here.
Vikings over Cardinals- The Vikings just keep winning games, while the Cardinals are hard to trust on a weekly basis. The Cardinals will play fantastic one week and terrible the next, while Minnesota has been incredibly reliable all season. It keeps finding different ways to win on the offensive side of the ball, while the defense remains consistently one of the best units in the league. The Vikings should be able to limit what Kyler Murray wants to do and take care of business at home.
Cowboys over Giants- The Cowboys just picked up a huge win over the Commanders and should ride that momentum into this game. Dallas has started to learn how to play without Dak Prescott. The Giants are clearly not at that stage yet of being able to play without Daniel Jones because they were an embarrassment last week against Tampa Bay. This team still has further to go in the wrong direction while things are looking up for Dallas.
Texans over Jaguars- The Texans desperately need a win in this spot. After an embarrassing loss to Tennessee last week, their defense needs to respond in a major way. The Houston defense ranks fourth in the league in EPA/play but it was dominated by Will Levis last week. DeMeco Ryans will not allow that to happen for a second week in a row and C.J. Stroud should be happy to face a defense that ranks dead last in EPA/play.
Seahawks over Jets- The Jets are a disaster on and off the field. Everyone is getting fired, Aaron Rodgers is speculating on his departure to the media and they are bad on both sides of the ball. Seattle is very much in control of its own destiny to win the NFC West and Geno Smith should have a big day in his revenge game spot against the Jets. The Jets can’t tackle on defense and can’t produce explosive plays on offense, which is bad news when facing Seattle.
Ravens over Eagles- The Ravens picked up a really nice win over the Chargers last week. Saquon Barkley has been incredible for the Eagles but this Ravens defense is second in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush. They should be able to force Jalen Hurts to pass, which is where he is not nearly as effective. The Baltimore crowd will be rowdy for this game and Lamar Jackson should show why he is a top MVP candidate in this game. There is also a big coaching edge for Baltimore with Harbaugh over Sirianni.
Coin-Flip Games
Packers over Dolphins- The Packers dominated the 49ers last week and they have found ways to win close games all season. Green Bay is 32-9 as home favorites under Matt LaFleur. It has shown time and again that it will find a way to win these close games at home, while Tua Tagovailoa has really struggled in cold weather throughout his career. The Packers have been really good on both sides of the ball and Josh Jacobs is playing his best football of the season. The Packers should have just enough to find a win.
Rams over Saints- The Rams and Saints are two hard teams to decipher. On any given week, their offenses can explode but they have been incredibly inconsistent this season. The reason I am backing the Rams is the Saints’ issues defending the run. They rank 26th in defensive EPA/rush and Kyren Williams should be able to grind them down on the ground. That will set up the play-action passing game where Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can run wild.
Bengals over Steelers- The Bengals have found ways to lose games this season, which makes them scary to pick, however, they have been the much better offensive team between these two. The Bengals rank seventh in offensive EPA/play while the Steelers rank 16th. The Bengals might just be able to outscore the Steelers in this game even if they don’t put forth a great defensive effort. If they want any chance at making the playoffs, now is the time to win at home.
Falcons over Chargers- The Falcons have lost back-to-back games but had a much-needed bye week last week. They needed to reset and take a break after that bad performance against Denver. Los Angeles does not have the explosive offensive weapons to really hurt the Falcons’ weaknesses on the back end of their defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens showed that the Chargers’ defense can be exploited by a dangerous offense, which Atlanta does have when it plays its best. The Falcons should find a way to win at home.
Colts over Patriots- The Colts are another team that is completely unpredictable on a weekly basis. That being said, the Patriots are playing really poorly as of late. Drake Maye gave their offense an initial bump but that is wearing off and they are poorly coached all around. New England is not in the top 25 in the league in offensive or defensive EPA/play. Meanwhile, the Colts’ defense ranks 13th in defensive EPA/play. They will be the best of the four units between the two teams and should make it hard for New England to win this game.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
