Happy Thanksgiving! To continue tradition, the Packers are playing in their 38th Thanksgiving Day game and host the Dolphins on Thursday night at Lambeau field. Both teams are coming off of convincing wins: Green Bay dominated the 49ers 38-10 while Miami has begun to hit their stride with a 34-15 win over the Patriots. While you’re chatting with family or stuck to the couch watching the early NFL games, there might not be ample time to ponder your DraftKings Daily Fantasy lineups—so, I’m here to help you construct a winning lineup for this Turkey Day showdown. Let’s get after it!
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Thanksgiving Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (MIA @ GB)
Captain’s Picks
Josh Jacobs ($15,000 CP): 26 carries, 106 yards, three touchdowns, 31.6 FPTS in Week 12. Need I say more? Fine I will. Jacobs has been an outstanding addition to this Packers offense after they moved on from veteran back Aaron Jones in the offseason. Last week vs. the 49ers, Jacobs was a monster, forcing a missed tackle on 57.7% of his carriers (15), which is the most of any ball carrier in a single game this season. Jacobs has been dominant after contact, forcing 67 missed tackles (T-3) and collecting 740 rushing yards after contact (T-3) on the season. He now faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed +151 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season (7th-most) and a league-worst 4.0 yards after contact per carry.
31.6 FPTS last week, and averaging 23.3 FPTS over his last five games? I want Jacobs steering the ship.
FLEX Plays
De’Von Achane ($10,800): The entire Dolphins offense has benefited from getting Tua Tagovailoa ($9,000) back from injury, but no one as much as De’von Achane. Since Week 8, the Fins’ back has averaged 22.02 FPTS per game with six total touchdowns to add to the tally. The Texas A&M alum is finding production through the air when not available on the ground, catching two touchdowns in Week 12 and adding 26 receptions over his past five games. In general, Achane has been a red zone monster for Tua, being targeted on 31.4% of his red zone routes so far this season, which is the 4th-highest rate among running backs (with a minimum 15 such routes). Achane also ranks top three in running back receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns—this isn’t even glazing, these are just facts! However, it’s worth noting that Achane has only generated an average of 0.8 yards before contact per carry this season (a struggling offensive line will do that do you).
With a stingy Green Bay secondary looming ahead, this is a prime spot for Achane to have a field day. I’d expect the lead back to get targeted in the red zone and be utilized for the checkdown a fair amount, as Tagovailoa has attempted a pass behind the line of scrimmage on 30.6% of attempts this season (1st).
Jayden Reed ($9,600): Romeo Doubs (concussion) has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s matchup, leaving his targets up for grabs. With a wide receiver room full of options, ownership could lean towards Dontayvion Wicks ($4,400) or Christian Watson ($6,800) due to their cheaper salaries and deep-threat abilities. However, I’d be cautious with the latter two. Wicks owns the most red zone targets amongst Packers wide receivers, but sports a 29% drop percentage on catchable targets. Watson is handling a 12.5% target share (5th amongst Packers) and has only pulled in four receptions on 13 targets over 20+ yards—one notably dropped just steps from the end zone vs. the 49ers.
Jayden Reed has been more reliable for Jordan Love ($9,600), despite only pulling in five receptions in the past two contests. Reed has racked up 344 receiving yards on deep targets this season (4th-most) and 203 more than any other Packers receiver (Watson, 141), per Next Gen Stats. The Dolphins—while allowing the third-lowest amount of receiving yards to wideouts—have allowed the 6th-highest completion percentage (43.8%) against deep passes. The Packers’ young receivers do have, lets say, a dropping issue, and Reed’s 12.7% drop rate on catchable balls matched with his mastery out of the slot draws my attention to him over the rest of the field.
Jonnu Smith ($6,400): Alright, Jonnu! 54.8 FPTS over his last two contests with three touchdowns added in, I like this momentum! Smith has emerged as a solid quick option Tagovailoa, who is currently averaging the quickest time to throw in the NFL (2.41 seconds). Tagovailoa has completed 115 of his 145 quick passes for 1,028 yards, seven touchdowns, and only two picks this season, and Smith has totaled 367 receiving yards on said quick passes (2nd-most among TEs). They both head into a favorable matchup against a Packers defense that has struggled to defend quick passes and tight ends. Green Bay is allowing an average of 7.3 yards per attempt to quick passes this season, and on top of that, allow the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Smith has generated +89 receiving yards over expected and +53 yards after the catch over expected since the Week 6 bye, and I’m liking his momentum to carry into Thursday night’s matchup.
Fades
Tyreek Hill ($9,800): The Cheetah simply has not…been the Cheetah. The Dolphins’ star wideout’s production has been sub-par all season, primarily due to a carousal of backup quarterbacks, but also a lingering wrist injury. Hill has played through the same wrist injury for the past two weeks and has yet to hit anywhere close to his 130 receiving yard performance in Week 1. Despite getting his starting QB back, Hill has averaged just five receptions and 13.6 FPTS in his last five contests, none of which have justified his salary being the third-highest on the slate. Going against a Packers’ secondary that is allowing the ninth-lowest amount of passing yards and eighth-lowest amount of fantasy points to wide receivers (and a safety in Xavier McKinney with a 50.0% ball hawk rate), I’m saving my salary for other weapons.
RESULT: Packers 24, Dolphins 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Thanksgiving Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (MIA @ GB)
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