The Lions have been nearly perfect in 2024, amassing a 10-1 record that includes nine straight victories. Next up, they’ll play their first of two games against the Bears in the team’s annual Thanksgiving Day game.
Despite the excellent 2024 showing, Detroit hasn’t won a game on the holiday since 2016. This NFC North rivalry matchup will be a great opportunity to break that streak. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Lions as 9.5-point favorites at home and the game total is 48.
There aren’t many weaknesses with this Detroit squad. The backfield features the best running back tandem in the league with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They’ve combined for 22 total touchdowns this season.
The Lions also feature Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta in the passing game. St. Brown has 747 yards and nine touchdowns on 71 receptions this season. All this has combined to rank Detroit as the league’s No. 1 offense in points scored and No. 2 in yards.
Furthermore, the defense is ranked No. 2 in terms of points allowed. Not much is getting past this Lions group, so the Bears and Caleb Williams will have a major challenge on their plate.
Chicago has lost five straight heading into the holiday matchup. It would be quite the accomplishment for the rookie quarterback if he can upset the Lions on the road.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Turkey Day Showdown [$100K to 1st] (CHI @ DET).
Captain’s Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs ($14,400 Captain’s Pick): The Lions have two running backs worthy of a captain’s pick, but Gibbs should be prioritized. The second-year player is a factor in both the run and pass game, and he’s not as touchdown reliant as Montgomery is.
Gibbs is averaging 104.6 rushing + receiving yards per game to go with 11 total touchdowns. He’s also had at least 11 carries in each game this year. Montgomery, on the other hand, is averaging 79.1 yards per game and has 11 total scores.
Both running backs will get their fair share, but Gibbs has the slight edge, thus earning the captain’s pick.
Flex Plays
David Montgomery ($8,600): Why play just one running back if both are this good? Although Gibbs is the preferred captain’s pick, Montgomery is a close second choice. The Chicago defense has allowed the 23rd most rushing touchdowns, which is ideal for Montgomery.
The 27-year-old is often touchdown reliant in DFS lineups, so this gives him a great opportunity to capitalize. Montgomery doesn’t have the yards per game total that Gibbs has, so touchdowns are much more important to maximize his value.
Montgomery is still a very easy start as the Lions look to snap their seven-game losing streak on Thanksgiving.
Lions D/ST ($5,400): Not only do the Lions have a great offense, but their defense is one of the best, too. They allow the second fewest points in the NFL. The strength lies in their run stoppage, allowing the fifth fewest yards and second least attempts/
The pass defense is good in the sense it allows the least touchdowns in the NFL, but it’s extremely prone to giving up lots of yards. Detroit ranks 25th in terms of passing yards allowed and 29th in passes attempted. The Lions don’t have many weaknesses, but their passing defense is one that Williams could potentially take advantage of.
Rome Odunze ($6,600): Four teams have allowed at least 2,000 receiving yards to wideouts this season with the Lions being one of them. Not only is the Detroit pass defense a weakness, but the Bears may need to air the ball out to catch up to the Lions’ potent offense.
Chicago has a handful of receivers that can benefit from this, but Rome Odunze has the best value given his downfield threat. Odunze is third among all wide receivers in unrealized air yards, meaning he’s targeted deep often, but Williams isn’t completing passes with his fellow rookie.
All it takes is one pass to get great value from a deep ball, but Odunze has been more than just a long threat lately. Williams targeted him 10 times in each of the past two games, and Odunze totaled 11 receptions.
Fades
D’Andre Swift ($8,000): D’Andre Swift’s salary is $600 cheaper than Montgomery, but the Bears’ running back is significantly less valuable. The Lions’ run defense is elite, so the Bears shouldn’t test that unit too often.
Detroit will also likely take a large lead, so Chicago will need to air the ball out to catch up.
The Outcome
While the Lions have struggled on Thanksgiving over the past seven outings, this is where it ends. Detroit snaps the seven-game losing streak in a crushing victory over the Bears. Chicago loses its sixth straight game as the season crumbles into a disaster.
Final Score: Lions 35, Bears 16
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Turkey Day Showdown [$100K to 1st] (CHI @ DET).
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