Every year we lament that lack of depth at the tight end position. Every year we struggle to fill the void at the position on bye weeks. Every year we resort to starting a scrub TE with the hopes that they’ll somehow find their way into the end zone. These have been the truths of the fantasy football for decades. It would be pure lunacy to somehow find an elite tight end just sitting on the waiver wire mid-season, right? …Right?!
No one is to blame for being underwhelmed by Jonnu Smith when initially projecting TE value. The 29-year-old was on the heels of a career-best campaign in Atlanta, but he was now headed to Miami, a squad that famously ignored their tight ends for a majority of 2023. TEs weren’t emphasized in Mike McDaniel’s system and, with the two-headed monster of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle garnering most of the target share, what would even be left for Smith? All these thoughts were validated immediately with Smith catching one pass for seven yards in Week 1. After that, Tua Tagovailoa got hurt and the Dolphins’ offense was absolutely putrid. Nothing to see here.
However, something clicked for Smith in Week 5 and he’s been a crucial element of Miami’s aerial attack ever since. In fact, in that seven game span, Smith is TE4 in PPR formats, having scored more FPTS than Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. He also ranks fourth among tight ends in receptions (39), fourth in receiving yards (457) and fourth in receiving touchdowns (4).
Obviously, Smith’s viability has only risen with the return of Tagovailoa. The veteran TE had not logged a 50% snap share prior to the QB coming back in Week 8 against the Cardinals, and he’s now exceeded a 65% snap rate in four of the Dolphins’ past five contests. It’s a five-game stretch where Miami is averaging 29.0 points and is living in the red zone, which has helped Smith’s value, as well. It should come as no shock that Smith’s racked up an impressive six red zone targets over the Dolphins’ last two victories, which has translated directly into three touchdowns.
The only worry I have for Smith in Week 13 is weather. We’ve seen Miami’s scoring output flounder in cold weather and they’ll be playing a night game in late November at Lambeau Field. However, Smith’s aDOT is low. He’s been a reliable short-yardage option for Tagovailoa and there’s a chance he’s leaned on even more than usual if the elements get nasty. At this point, Jonnu Smith is a start in all formats without question.
Start or Sit Jonnu Smith? Start.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
