College football season has flown by, and now we’re onto Rivalry Week. This is the final week of the regular season before we move onto Conference Championships, Bowl Games and the new 12-team College Football Playoff. Some games are crucial, some are meaningless.
I already put out a couple of games on Sunday here. Those numbers are on the move, but I will include the numbers I would play each game up to in my analysis. Thanksgiving week can be hectic for all of us, and the games span over more days. I made sure to include the date and time of each game that I’m on. Let’s breakdown the plays below.
Minnesota at Wisconsin ML (-130) – 1-unit (Friday 12pm ET)
Wisconsin was off a huge home game two weeks ago, in which it almost knocked off undefeated Oregon, but ultimately lost by three. It set up a really tough road spot for the Badgers to recollect themselves and go on the road to Nebraska, and they wound up dropping that game. Nebraska had everything to play for, getting the win and securing a Bowl Game.
Now it’s the Badgers that should be the hungry home team, sitting on five wins and needing a victory for their own bowl eligibility. Minnesota is in a similar spot to Wisconsin last week. The Gophers went toe-to-toe with Penn State this past Saturday, but fell just short, losing by a single point on their home field. Now Minnesota, which is already bowl eligible, must go on the road and face a Wisky squad playing for its season.
Look for the Badgers to go all out at home, but I wouldn’t lay any points or go past the -130 moneyline price.
Navy at East Carolina ML (-120) – 1-unit (Friday 12pm ET)
Navy’s season has been dismantled since getting blown out by Notre Dame, which will be a theme in this article. The Midshipmen have only defeated USF since falling to the Irish by a score of 51-14. In the other two games, Navy lost by 14 to Rice and got shutout 35-0 by Tulane. Navy is also in a semi-lookahead spot here, with the big game against Army on deck in two weeks. Winning a game like that could still make the season for the Midshipmen, but East Carolina just has this game to prepare for.
ECU comes in riding a four-game winning streak in which it is averaging over 45 points per game. The rush defense for the Pirates is a bit of a concern here, but I’m more confident that they’ll be able to get the offense going at home, and it’ll be Navy struggling to play catchup. The winner here will take third place in the AAC, and ECU would feel great about an 8-4 finish.
Give me the Pirates at home here. I’d be willing to go out to -130 on the moneyline.
UTSA +7.5 (-120) at Army – 1-unit (Saturday 12pm ET)
Army was humbled by Notre Dame on Saturday night, and now they have a really tough spot on the final week of the regular season. Just about the only thing the Black Knights have working in their favor is that they’re at home, but this is a ridiculous sandwich spot that they find themselves in.
As I mentioned, playing the Irish has been a curse the next week. Teams that play ND are now an insane 0-9 ATS the following week, and that’s where Army now finds itself. We know that Army treated last week like a playoff game, and now they have to hit the reset button and prepare for UTSA. However, Army also has a couple of monster games just ahead on the schedule. Next week, Army will face off against Tulane in the AAC Championship game, and then follow it up with the Navy game the following week. Clearly, UTSA is the least important of the three games.
Meanwhile, the Roadrunners have won four of five, and have put up 44 or more points in each of the last three. They should find ways to put points on the board in this game, and their defense is equipped to slow Army down. UTSA ranks 14th in the country in rushing yards allowed, and other advanced metrics rank even higher. Look for UTSA to slow the run and catch Army off guard in this one.
Expect a tight game and take the points down to +7.
South Carolina +3 (-110) at Clemson – 1.5-units (Saturday 12pm ET)
In theory, both of these teams can treat this as a playoff game, as both have an outside shot to crack the field. Clemson will have home field advantage for this in-state rivalry, but will be up against stiff competition. Clemson got a taste of SEC play in the opener, losing 34-3 to a Georgia team that has looked human and showed flaws this season. The Tigers have faced pretty weak competition since then. The best team they played was probably Louisville, who came to Death Valley and won by 12 points. I’m just not convinced Clemson is a good team when really digging into the resume.
South Carolina is a good team, and they’ve shown it in tough road spots — most notably losing at Alabama in a game that came right down to the wire. The Gamecocks have the better quarterback in the game, and I trust that their defense will force more mistakes than Clemson’s will. Going on the road for a game like this is a tall order, but I trust SC can get it done.
I like the Gamecocks outright in this one, and would play down to even money on the moneyline.
Texas at Texas A&M +7.5 (-110) – 2-units (Saturday 7:30pm ET)
This is undoubtably the game of the weekend. Texas and Texas A&M haven’t faced each other since 2011, and now renew the rivalry in SEC play with a trip to the Conference Championship Game on the line.
Everything looks good on the surface for Texas at 10-1, but we saw the Longhorns get dominated at home by Georgia. When we go through the 10 wins for Texas, what’s most impressive? Probably Michigan or Florida? Outside of Georgia, this is going to be the toughest test for Texas this season. But the Longhorns got the Bulldogs at home, and now have to go on the road to one of the most difficult home field advantages in college football at Kyle Field.
Texas A&M has surprised this season, and are still alive in the SEC and College Football Playoff. Outside off a loss to Notre Dame in the season opener, the Aggies are 6-0 at home. But this is also a completely different team than early in the season. The dynamic ability of Marcel Reed at quarterback has changed the offense, and should give Texas some trouble. The Aggies are off a really tough loss at Auburn in four overtimes, but with how the SEC shook out, they still have life.
Look for Texas A&M to be hungry off the loss and give us their very best game at home on Saturday night. I got in early on this one at a good number, but I think they have a chance outright. Play a little moneyline if you wish, but I’d play this one down to +4.5.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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