You know how tight ends are usually the assets that fantasy managers would describe as touchdown dependant? Meet Quentin Johnston. The former first-round pick enters Monday’s tilt against the Ravens having found the end zone in three straight games. In fact, for the season as a whole, Johnston leads the Chargers in receiving touchdowns with six, despite having only been healthy enough to play in eight contests. Is that a sign of things to come? Or a worrying display of scoring that could only be dubbed unsustainable?
There are 11 players with at least six receiving touchdowns in 2024. Of that group, Johnston ranks 10th in targets (37) and 10th in receptions (22). That’s right. Johnston’s managed a TD on a whopping 27.3% of his catches so far this season. It’s really the lone trait that’s been keeping him fantasy relevant. Consider that Johnston is averaging a microscopic 4.8 FPTS in the games where he hasn’t stepped foot into the end zone. Woof.
The biggest red flag with Johnston is simply volume. The wideout has been held to three receptions or fewer in six of his eight contests. However, there is some reason to be optimistic when projecting tonight’s matchup with the Ravens. In general, Los Angeles has played a to a very specific script this season: Low-scoring games where its played with the lead. That’s allowed the Chargers to throw the ball on just 51.2% of their offensive plays — the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL.
The lone exception? Last weekend’s rollercoaster victory over the Bengals. Los Angeles was forced to be more aggressive through the air and it finished the win with a 60.3% pass rate. That translated into a season-high eight targets for Johnston. I’d expect Monday’s meeting with Baltimore to be quite similar. Heck, the Chargers could even find themselves behind by multiple scores, a situation they’ve rarely been through 11 weeks.
With the prospect of a negative script, and the presence of a Ravens secondary that’s surrendered the most FPTS per game to opposing wide receivers this season, I’m willing to call Quentin Johnston a solid WR3 in Week 12. He’s even got some value in DFS, though his $7,400 price tag is a little high for my liking. It’s also worth noting that Ladd McConkey (shoulder) is technically questionable for MNF, though I’d expect him to be available after logging a pair of limited practices on Friday and Saturday. Still, if McConkey sits, it only makes Johnston more valuable.
Start or Sit Quentin Johnston? Start.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
