It has been over a decade since the last time Jim and John Harbaugh faced off as head coaches. This occurred in the 2013 Super Bowl where John and the Ravens took down Jim and the 49ers. While the stakes are not quite as high, there will rightfully be a spectacle as the two brothers face off on Monday Night Football tonight.
Both teams enter with a positive outlook. The Ravens hold a 7-4 record and look every bit the Super Bowl contenders they desire to be. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is playing some of the best football of his career and Derrick Henry has been a perfect compliment in the backfield. While the defensive concerns are legitimate, as the Ravens rank 23rd in points allowed and 25th in yards given up, Baltimore is a dangerous team.
The Chargers have exceeded expectations thus far and enter with a 7-3 record. They are holding opponents to the NFL’s fewest points per game and have opened the offense up in recent weeks. Justin Herbert is playing great football, and for the first time, has the defense to back him up.
The Ravens enter this game as three-point favorites and are -155 on the moneyline. The Chargers are +130 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 51 for the matchup. With the stage fully set for Monday Night Football, here are four player props I like.
Justin Herbert Over 264.5 Passing Yards (-120)
At the start of the season, the Chargers leaned heavily on their running game and defense en route to success. This began to change midseason when Los Angeles unleashed Justin Herbert a bit more. The Oregon product was held to 20 or fewer pass attempts and did not throw for more than 179 passing yards across the first four games. Since this point, he has thrown for over 237 passing yards in five of the past six games and thrown an average of 31 pass attempts per game.
On the season overall, Herbert has averaged 218.6 passing yards per game. However, he has averaged 268 passing yards across the past six weeks and eclipsed 264.5 passing yards in four of these games. Herbert also has averaged over 264.5 passing yards per game in three of the four previous seasons. The Chargers should especially look to utilize his arm tonight against a struggling Ravens pass defense. Baltimore ranks dead last in passing yards allowed and 30th in passing touchdowns given up. They have allowed over 262.5 passing yards in six of their 11 games this season.
As Herbert’s opportunity continues to expand within the offense, look for the Chargers to put forth a pass-oriented attack. The Ravens defense has not shown the ability to slow down impressive passing attacks and Herbert has the arm talent to capitalize on this. Expect an artful plan to pick apart the porous defense and for Herbert to comfortably clear 264.5 passing yards in the process.
Ladd McConkey Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
One of the primary reasons for the growth in the Chargers’ passing attack has been the emergence of rookie Ladd McConkey. Across the 10 games he has played this season, McConkey has produced 43 receptions for 615 yards and tallied four touchdowns. He is coming off 123 receiving yards last week and has also tallied 111 yards and two touchdowns in a game this season.
McConkey (questionable, shoulder) will benefit from the struggling Ravens’ defense, assuming he plays. He has emerged as the top pass catcher in the Chargers offense and will be in line for plenty of targets. The Georgia product has been targeted seven or more times in five of the last seven games and recorded at least two catches in every game this year. He has 250 more receiving yards than any other player on the roster.
Expect McConkey to be busy from start to finish in tonight’s matchup. He is a high-level route runner who can be used in a variety of ways. McConkey is capable of breaking free for a massive gain, but will more likely be used in the short passing game and gradually chip away at this number. There will be enough volume for him and I like the over of 66.5 receiving yards tonight.
Derrick Henry Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
One of the biggest offseason additions across the entire NFL was the Ravens’ signing of All-Pro running back Derrick Henry. The former Titans star has been a perfect backfield compliment to Lamar Jackson. Baltimore trails only the Philadelphia Eagles in rushing yards, averaging 177.3 per game as a team.
Henry has been at the heart of this, averaging 107.7 rushing yards per game on the season. He also has an impressive 13 rushing touchdowns. While this seems unsustainable by the standard of most players, Henry has led the NFL in rushing yards per game twice in his career, and his current number is only the third-best output of his career.
Overall, Henry has gone over 84.5 rushing yards in six of his 11 games. Los Angeles has a strong overall defense, but ranks 10th in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in net yards per rush attempt. Henry possesses a level of physicality that wears down a team, often leading to a long run later in games. Expect things to play out exactly like this before Henry breaks free for a lengthy gain and clears 84.5 yards on the ground. The Ravens are sure to give him plenty of opportunity and the star running back can be counted on to deliver.
Derrick Henry & J.K. Dobbins to Combine for 150+ Rushing Yards (+170)
While Henry has eclipsed 150 rushing yards three times this year by himself already, J.K. Dobbins also is in the midst of an impressive season. The 26-year-old has emerged as the clear-cut lead running back in the Chargers’ backfield after beginning the season splitting carries with Gus Edwards. Now 10 games into the season, Dobbins has seen 152 carries compared to 54 from Edwards. He is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game this season. There also will be a revenge factor in play as Dobbins started his career with the Ravens and was on the team from 2020-2023.
While the Ravens’ defensive metrics against the rush are fairly strong, this is a bit inflated by opposing teams attacking through the air. Baltimore has operated with a lead for most of this season, which has limited opponents’ rushing opportunities. However, Dobbins has run hard this year and will have his opportunities tonight. He has tallied as many as 135 rushing yards in a game this season and has recorded 50 or more yards on the ground in seven of the 10 games.
Expect both running backs to make their impact felt in this game and break free for some notable gains throughout. Across the 10 weeks both Henry and Dobbins have played, they have combined for 150 rushing yards nine times. Look for them to combine for over 150 yards rushing as they face off tonight, so +170 odds for this is great value.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
