Week 13. The time when brown and orange permeate the scene, but all we care about is how to stack the green. Of course, it’s to shower my queen. So let’s focus and make our minds lean. Don’t get distracted by all that radiates from the screen, focusing strictly on winning, like the homie Charlie Sheen. For that we must have discipline like a marine. Or implant some Nvidia chips, download some AI and transform into a DFS machine. That sounds obsene, but I don’t care if it brings success like Mr. Bean.
There are 10 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has six games with an O/U of at least 45: ARI/MIN (45.5), PIT/CIN (47), LAC/ATL (47), TB/CAR (46.5), LAR/NO (48.5) and PHI/BAL (50). There is no game with a total of 40 or below.
There is no double-digit spread favorite. There are six games within a field goal: SEA -2 over NYJ, CIN -3 over PIT, IND -3 over NEP, LAC -1.5 over ATL, LAR -3 over NO and BAL -2.5 over PHI. There are six home dogs: NO, CAR, ATL, NE, JAX and NYJ.
No teams are on bye.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers ($6,600) – Mayfield has put up at least 25 FPTS five times this season, with three over 30. He has gone sub-20 FPTS in each of the last three games as injuries decimated the receiving depth chart and two of the matchups were tough. Well, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan returned last week and the matchup is pristine this week. The Panthers have allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback on the season. In addition, Bryce Young has shown improvement and played well against a tough Chiefs defense last week, so there’s a chance this game becomes a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($8,000), Jalen Hurts ($7,700), Jayden Daniels ($7,200), Joe Burrow ($7,000), CJ Stroud ($6,400)
Value
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,700) – Against a tough Chiefs defense last week, Young went 21-of-35 for 263 yards and a touchdown while rushing three times for 20 yards. He was making throws under pressure, escaping the pocket and launching balls deep. As mentioned in the Mayfield section, this game has a chance to become a back-and-forth affair if both quarterbacks can play well. While the Panthers have allowed the second-most EPA per dropback, Tampa Bay is not too far behind in fifth.
Other Options – Russell Wilson ($5,700), Justin Herbert ($5,600), Anthony Richardson ($5,500), Derek Carr ($5,100)
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Running Back
Stud
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars ($8,000) – Mixon was shut down last week by the Titans, rushing 14 times for 22 yards while catching five passes for 23 yards. The Titans have one of the best rush defenses this season, posting the fifth-best EPA per carry. Things will be much different for Mixon this week, as he faces a Jaguars rush defense that has allowed the sixth-most EPA per carry. Prior to last week, Mixon carried at least 20 times in five straight, going over 100 yards in four of those and producing at least 25 FPTS in three of those contests with a high of 38.3. Houston is favored by five points and there should be plenty of scoring opportunites. The Jags do have the worst pass defense, so points could be scored through the air, but I think Mixon will still get his.
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($8,500), Derrick Henry ($7,800), Alvin Kamara ($7,700), Breece Hall ($7,500), Kyren Williams ($7,200), JK Dobbins ($6,800), Chuba Hubbard ($6,700), Aaron Jones ($6,500), Tony Pollard ($6,300) if Spears is out, Chase Brown ($6,200)
Value
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers ($5,800) – I like this game. What can I say? And what could go wrong? Make those Costanza lineups. That said, there could be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodies in this one. Last week, Irving out-snapped Rachaad White for the first time, although the split was still 50/50. More importantly, Irving received more targets and red zone chances. He finished with 27.1 FPTS.
Other Options – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900), Jaylen Warren ($5,500)
Wide Receiver
Stud
AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens ($8,300) – Brown hasn’t caught more than six passes in any game this season. He’s finished with five receptions five times, but he’s exceeded 100 yards four times and scored four touchdowns. The Eagles are dead-last in passing rate, but they may have difficulty running the ball in this one, as the Ravens have one of the most stout run defenses, posting the second-best EPA per carry. Plus, the Ravens could put up points in this one, forcing the Eagles to respond aggressively. The cherry on top is that the Ravens’ pass defense has been one of the most porous, allowing the eighth-most EPA per dropback, so the path of least resistance is clear.
Other Options – Nico Collins ($7,900), Puka Nacua ($7,600), Cooper Kupp ($7,400), George Pickens ($6,800), Mike Evans ($6,700), Tee Higgins ($6,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300), Zay Flowers ($6,200)
Value
David Moore, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,500) – You already know that I like this game, so it makes sense that I’d gravitate toward pass catchers. Moore hauled in six of 10 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown last week. There were injuries on the depth chart, so make sure the same situation is presented. If not, abort this mission.
Other Options – Tank Dell ($5,900), Calvin Ridley ($5,700), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,500), Jordan Addison ($5,300), Xavier Legette ($5,100), Quentin Johnston ($5,000), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,500), Rashod Bateman ($4,400), Sterling Shepard ($4,000), Kendrick Bourne ($3,500)
Tight End
Stud
TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals ($4,400) – It’s been four games since Hockenson returned from injury. He’s had two meh games and two Hockenson ones. Last week, he nabbed seven of nine targets for 119 yards. He showed his ability to make the tough contested catches. He’s back, baby!
Other Options – Trey McBride ($5,800), Taysom Hill ($5,000), Evan Engram ($4,800), Cade Otton ($4,500), Dallas Goedert ($4,300), Hunter Henry ($4,200)
Value
Tommy Tremble, Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,800) – Cue up DJ Khaled because “Another One.” Tremble may not be a good player but he’s playing a ton of snaps and should soak in all the targets at tight end because Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered an injury. They combined for five targets last week. He’s cheap!
Other Options – Will Dissly ($4,000), Mark Andrews ($3,900), Isaiah Likely ($3,700), Darnell Washington ($2,900)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Texans DST at Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,500) – The Jaguars are coming off their bye and they had some success in Week 4. But that was a loooooooong time ago and the landscape has changed a lot for both teams. The Texans DST has racked up double-digit FPTS in four of the last six games. The unit has posted the eighth-best EPA per dropback, has the second-most interceptions and has the second-highest sack rate.
Other Options – Commanders DST ($3,400)
Value
Colts DST at New England Patriots ($2,800) – The Colts DST isn’t a great fantasy unit, but they have scored double-digit FPTS in three games this season. The unit has eight interceptions, nine fumbles, 28 sacks and one touchdown. Now they face Drake Maye, who has five interceptions, four fumbles and has been sacked 12 times over the last four games.
Other Options – Rams DST ($2,700)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
