The Harbaugh Bowl (Harbowl?) is finally here, and all of us get the extreme pleasure of watching these two impeccably-coached teams clash. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, and the Baltimore Ravens will look to execute a gameplan that will absolutely smother Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and J.K. Dobbins. It’s going to be efficiency versus efficiency, grit versus grit, and we all should be grateful to cap NFL Week 12 off with this Monday Night Football matchup.
I already wrote about a Ladd McConkey prop I love for tonight here at DKNetwork, but I also am all over a Quentin Johnston Jr. market, as well.
Best Quentin Johnston prop bet for Chargers vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football
Quentin Johnston o50.5 receiving yards
We took the over on QJ1’s receiving yards for Sunday Night Football in Week 11 (set at 44.5) and he just cleared it at 48 yards. Which, of course, would not beat this number. But I’m not as concerned about that for tonight’s game.
I broke down, in my Ladd McConkey prop article, just how vulnerable this Ravens secondary is from an advanced analytic perspective:
The Ravens’ secondary is susceptible
The Baltimore Ravens defensive unit has allowed 88 explosive passing plays (defined by NGS as plays of 15+ yards), the most in the NFL by a margin of 11. That’s a uniquely-vulnerable secondary Justin Herbert’s going up against. Not coincidentally, Baltimore also leads the league in explosive-passing-plays-allowed rate, with 18.1% of their total dropbacks faced resulting in passing plays of fifteen-or-more yards.
This bodes well for our rocket-armed prince in electric blue, no? The Ravens also only generate pressure on the quarterback a below-league-average 30.3% of the time when rushing with four defenders, and rush four defenders 76.3% of the time. That’s good for fifth in the NFL. This is all to say: Justin Herbert should have a relatively clean pocket with which to operate.
I detailed this as reasoning behind my McConkey prop, but, honestly, it’s a bit more encouraging for this Quentin Johnston line. Since Week 7, Quentin Johnson ranks third in the NFL in route depth (16.1 yards). That’s only behind Christian Watson and Alec Pierce, both of whom have seen far less success on longballs. Johnston only has one drop during this time, which is a crucial stat for his doubters to register.
He has two endzone targets and two endzone receptions during this time, just as we noted last week. It’s worth mentioning again because it suggests the trust Herbert has developed in Johnson.
Bottom line
Among the same sample size, QJ1 also ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per target (12.8) and, despite no drops, actually has a slightly negative catch rate over expectation (CROE). Which means we could, in fact, see some positive reception regression.
Johnston can clear this number on one play, but we won’t need him to. He’s the most physical receiver the Chargers have on the outside, and he should get a ton of looks from Herbert tonight. This line feels far too low for the Chargers’ outside alpha.
Best Bet: Quentin Johnston o50.5 receiving yards
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