I put this one out on Twitter on Friday afternoon, with Tampa a growing road favorite at the Giants. The lookahead on this game was the Bucs laying a field goal, but Tampa took early money, and then the quarterback news for the G-Men further moved the number.
Both teams are off a frustrating loss, followed by a bye, so we should see them at their best. The problem is, one team’s best is clearly better than the other. I do happen to have some TB -3 in pocket and lean that way at the larger number, but I think turning to a player prop is the move in this game.
While Tampa continues to use a backfield rotation, Bucky Irving has clearly established himself as the better runner, and matched a career high with 16 touches in his last game. The rookie is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, coming off a 13-73-1 line against the Niners, prior to the bye. Irving has generally had his better games when the matchup dictates he should, and this is one of those spots.
The Giants rank 29th in rushing yards allowed this season at just over 147 per game. New York has been sliding as the season progresses, with opponents rushing for an average of 168 yards per game over the last three, including 188 yards from an abysmal Panthers team. Coming out of the bye should be a good spot to incorporate the rookie even more, especially with how much more productive Irving’s been on a per carry basis.
Game script should play right into this one, and I’m expecting a big day from Irving on the ground. It’s worth looking to ladder him at some potential alternate numbers.
PLAY: Bucky Irving OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.5-units
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