The 2024 NFL season is flying by, and Thanksgiving is just around the corner. But, before that, we have an 11-game Sunday slate, followed by Ravens at Chargers on Monday Night Football to round out Week 12. Below are my favorite Week 12 NFL Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
OVER Picks
WR Malik Nabers Over 60.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Despite the quarterback change in New York, I still like Nabers to over this total on Sunday. Although we haven’t seen them play together yet, it’s likely that Tommy DeVito will target the former LSU receiver just as much as his predecessor, Daniel Jones. Nabers is the fourth most targeted receiver in the league, only trailing Garrett Wilson, CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase.
New York’s receiving core has an elite matchup this week, as they host the Buccaneers, who rank 30th in the NFL against the pass. Nabers has hit the over on this number in five of his eight games this season, and I believe he will do it again against Tampa Bay. This total simply isn’t high enough, as Nabers has the production, target share and matchup to clear this number easily.
WR A.J. Brown Over 75.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is out for Sunday, which further paves the way for Brown to see massive volume. Like Nabers, Brown has hit the total on his over in five of eight games this season, and he also has a great matchup. The Eagles face the Rams, who rank 22nd in the league against the pass.
Brown’s 88.3 receiving yards per game this season is the fourth-best mark in the NFL, and it means that an average performance from him would hit the over on this number. Look for him to hit the over on this number for the sixth time in nine games.
WR DeAndre Hopkins Over 44.5 Rec Yds (-120)
Hopkins has gone over this total in two of his first three games as a Kansas City Chief, and I believe he will hit the over again this Sunday. Hopkins has a great matchup, facing a Panthers team that ranks 24th in the league against the pass.
Patrick Mahomes and Hopkins should continue to improve and grow continuity together as the season goes on, and what better week to do it than against the Panthers? Hopkins is averaging six targets per game for Kansas City, and I think that he should see that kind of volume again on Sunday, which ultimately should enable him to hit the over on this number.
UNDER Picks
RB Rico Dowdle Under 50.5 Rush Yds (-115)
The Cowboys face the Commanders this Sunday, who are not great at stopping the run. Washington ranks 30th in the NFL in that category. However, I am still taking Dowdle’s under for Week 12. In his nine games so far this season, Dowdle has only gone over this total on three occasions He is averaging 44.6 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry this season.
Dowdle is coming off his worst performance of the season in Week 11, rushing 10 times for only 28 yards. He has struggled to get anything going in most of the Cowboys games so far this season, and I believe Sunday will be no different.
QB Bryce Young Under 177.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Young has improved slightly this season, but not enough to warrant him getting off this list. In the five games that he has started this season, he has only gone over this total on one occasion. The Chiefs’ defense is stingy, but not as good against the pass as they were last season. Kansas City ranks 16th in the league in that category. They still should be good enough to keep Young under this total and cause a ton of problems for the Panthers’ offense.
Although there’s been a slight improvement from Young this season, he still has a very long way to go. Young is not listed in the top 15 for any major statistics for quarterbacks. Yards, completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per game, touchdown passes, passer rating and QBR. Look for Kansas City and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to make things extremely tough on the young QB.
WR Tank Dell Under 49.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Dell has gone under this total in six of his 10 games this season, and I think he will make it seven of 11 on Sunday. With Nico Collins back in the mix, Dell should see less of the ball, making this total even harder to reach. To make matters worse, he has the toughest possible matchup on Sunday. The Texans face the Titans, who are the best defense against the pass currently, only allowing 164.6 yards per game.
Dell and C.J. Stroud will have their work cut out for them on Sunday, and even though I believe the Texans will get the win, it probably won’t be as simple as that. Tennessee are elite against the pass, and much more forgiving against the run. This feels like a Joe Mixon game, and why not? The veteran running back has looked fantastic pounding the rock for Houston this season. Although this is not a huge total for Dell, the matchup makes his under the clear play in this spot.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
