Fridays are for Five Lists of Five here at DKNetwork, and for Week 12, we want that partridge in a pear tree kinda win on Sunday, you know? What with the twelve days of Christmas just around the corner. The duration of which will be decidedly different for Daniel Jones, freshly released from the New York Giants per his own request. And that’s not even the most breaking fantasy news of the weekend. We’re waiting to hear statuses on CeeDee Lamb, Ladd McConkey, Malik Nabers and more.
Keeping it rolling this week with my top five fantasy football must-starts and smash spots.
Also available from this week’s Fantasy Fridays Five Lists of Five:
- Top five fantasy football players most likely to score a touchdown in NFL Week 12
- Top five fantasy football must-starts and smash spots for NFL Week 12
- Top five fantasy football stash players for NFL Week 12
- Top five fantasy football streamers for NFL Week 12
Break ‘Em Out
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
We know two things—one, Keenan Allen’s ankle isn’t fully healthy, regardless of whether he’s active on Sunday. Second: Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams are quietly showing growing rapport as one of the most hopeful of countless hopeless Bears’ seasons bends its way into the latter half of the season.
Since Week 7, Odunze has been on the other end of a gobsmacking eleven first downs. Those are third-and-Jauan-degree numbers (Jennings has 12 in that same timespan, though he was injured for a good piece of it). Odunze’s yards per route figure of 13.8 during that time suggests they’re using him to push the middle of defensive coverage beyond the sticks, and that’s where Caleb’s targeting him.
There is no question that Odunze is the receiver of the future in Chicago, nor should there be a question about Caleb Williams as their quarterback. Look for Odunze to clip his average of just under six targets per game on Sunday, and pray he gets into the end zone.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
All the sudden we’re all out on MHJ just because Kyler Muray, Trey McBride, and James Conner are performing at expected levels of excellence? How does that make sense?
It doesn’t. And we’ll see why on Sunday at 4:25 when Arizona takes on the Seattle Seahawks. To start, let’s get it out of the way: Murray hasn’t been the most accurate when targeting MHJ recently. Harrison Jr. has an expected catch rate of 53.9% over the last five weeks (four games; Arizona had their BYE in Week 11). He’s actually caught just north of 69% of his passes, so his +16%-and-change catch rate over expected is indicative of Harrison’s ability to make plays on his own.
The Seahawks are staunchly middle-of-the-pack in aggregate defensive DVOA (15th in the NFL), with a 16th-ranked passing DVOA as well. This offensive line in front of Kyler Murray should have no problem dispatching the Seahawks’ middling pass rush and buy time for him to get the ball early and often to his alpha in a heated divisional matchup.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
First, let’s start here: Mea culpa—all the way. I advocated for dropping Jameson Williams back when his suspension came down, as I was convinced this was bound to shake out like the Will Fuller V situation in Texas. Not so. Williams returned from his suspension and has been dynamic as ever, with an 8-173-1 receiving line in his games played since.
Williams lines up outside, and, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Colts are 28th in the NFL when defending opposing wide receivers who line up along the sidelines. It’s a smash spot, and Williams will have not just a breakout game, but a breakaway one.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers (vs. San Francisco 49ers)
It’s really a bit of a dart throw with this target distribution in Green Bay. But it just doesn’t feel like Christian Watson is ever going to be the guy. Nor will Dontayvion Wicks. Doubs is the closest thing they’ve got to untapped potential in that starting receiver room.
Doubs has 23 targets since Week 7, which is tied with MHJ above, and one more than Jauan Jennings, who’s become a legitimate WR1 during that timespan. Among Doubs’s other stats also are three drops, which might explain his paltry one endzone target during this timespan.
Josh Jacobs will be the focal point of the offense on Sunday, but I like Doubs to eclipse his 21.2% last-five-weeks target share on Sunday, log another end zone target, and hit paydirt.
Doubs also has 13 first downs in that time, most of any Packers receiver.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Anyone else watch Hunter Henry absolutely obliterate the Rams defense over the middle? Los Angeles’s defensive front might be creating pressure at an impressive rate for having two rookies at its forefront, but the over-the-middle coverage is soft. Quentin Lake hasn’t been as dynamic a run-support force from the safety position as LA probably hoped this year. He’s a great tackler, but he’s not a pouncer.
Goedert is due for more volume in this game, too, seeing as DeVonta Smith has been ruled out headed into Sunday Night Football. I like this young Rams defense, but I don’t think any of their nickel corners or linebackers can match well with Goedert. A.J. Brown might bash-brother his way to an Eagles victory against this somewhat featherweight Rams secondary.
Provided Goedert can stay on the field after every catch, he might have a TE1 outing in his future. I like him for right around seven targets in this one, potentially more if game script calls for it.
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