It’s Week 12 in the NFL – New York teams are falling apart, the Cowboys have the same amount of wins as the Patriots and the Panthers, and the Brown’s $4 million
backup just performed better in a snowstorm than the quarterback they paid $230 million in any of his fair weather starts.
Now let’s get to a few props for this weekend.
Chiefs -10.5 @ Panthers
Travis Kelce Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce may have had a rough week against the Bills but I am confident he can shake it off. We know all too well what he is capable of – and we saw it the three weeks prior when he put up the following stat lines: 8 catches on 12 targets for 64 yards, 14 catches on 16 targets for 100 yards, and 10 catches on 12 targets for 90 yards. His catches prop line is set at 6.5. He has yet to have a game this season with seven catches where he didn’t have 57 or more yards – averaging almost 83 receiving yards in those five games. This is a perfect spot for Kelce to bounce back as he’s facing a Panthers squad that is allowing the 2nd most production to tight ends with over 5
catches and 60 yards a game. They’ve also allowed 5 tight end touchdowns over the last four games – a Kelce anytime TD is priced at +105. Expect the Chiefs to come in hungry for a win after their first loss, and expect Patrick Mahomes to find his favorite target and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend early and often. Are you ready for it?
Buccaneers -6 @ Giants
Theo Johnson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
The 2-8 Giants released quarterback Daniel Jones – taking on over $20 million in dead money … and now it’s time for everybody’s favorite paisano, Tommy DeVito. While he does have talented wide receivers headlined by Malik Nabers, tight end Theo Johnson should be his best friend as a safety outlet for easier throws in a softer matchup. We’ve seen Johnson’s production increase over the season – with a 90% snap rate since week 6. He’s now seen the 4th most snaps of all tight ends this year – behind only Dalton Schultz, Cade Otton, and Hunter Henry. What makes him an even better bet this week is that he’s facing a Tampa team that is allowing the fifth most catches (5.8) and second most receiving yards (68.4) a game to tight ends. Johnson has had 22 or more receiving yards in five of the last six games – coming off back to back games with six targets. I expect more of that moving forward.
Ravens -2.5 @ Chargers
Justin Herbert Over 254.5 Passing Yards
It’s the Harbaugh Bowl – what more could you want? How about Justin Herbert to air it out, which we have (finally) seen the last few weeks. He has cashed the over on this number in four of the last five games, averaging over 274 in that stretch. The Ravens are a 2.5 point favorite on the road – decent respect from bookmakers – which bodes well for the over here for Herbert’s passing yards. This has been the case for Ravens’ opponents for most of the season, which has led to Baltimore allowing the most attempts (40), completions (26) and the most passing yards (304.6). Herbert is not only leading the NFL in Passer Rating on 20+ air yard plays, but doing so with just one interception on the season (Week 2). It’s a high yardage prop, but with the highest game total on the board at 51, we should be alright on the over.
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