Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects lightning rod Sixers center Joel Embiid to have a 50% chance to play today. Embiid was a surprise absence from shootaround this morning, amidst a week in which leaked details of a meeting where teammate Tyrese Maxey called out Embiid’s work ethic have reportedly infuriated the former MVP.
Officially, Embiid is questionable with the ongoing injury recovery for his left knee. While Embiid was seemingly on-track to play after his return on 11/12, this latest issue and his own health put Embiid’s status seriously in question for the 2-12 Sixers.
While Embiid hasn’t been himself to start the year — producing just 1.13 DraftKings Points Per Minute on 30% usage, a 13.7% rebound rate and a 19.4% assist rate — his status alongside the also unavailable Paul George will be crucial for tonight’s slate.
If Embiid plays, Unabated’s Conditional NBA projections have him at 24.4 points, 9.9 rebounds and 4.8 assists in tonight’s game at home versus Brooklyn.
If Embiid sits, projections would move as follows for some of his key Sixers teammates:
- Tyrese Maxey projects for 20.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists (17.4 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists if Embiid is in)
- Jared McCain projects for 22.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 6.2 assists (19.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists if Embiid is in)
- Kelly Oubre projects for 13.9 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.2 assists (11.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists if Embiid is in)
- Caleb Martin projects for 10.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (9.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists if Embiid is in)
There would be huge Expected Value on prop betting markets for all four of Jared McCain, Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre and Caleb Martin if Embiid were to miss tonight’s game. Each Sixers player projects for at least 11% EV on their market Points + Rebounds + Assists lines on the chance Embiid sits out.
In addition to the impact on prop markets — Guerschon Yabusele could also emerge as one of the key value plays of the DraftKings DFS slate at his $3600 salary. Let’s see how this process shakes out!
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
