Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions, and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges, which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full contest sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription, you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
The top three overall positive edges, and really the only three QBs that the models want to use, are Jayden Daniels ($7,000), Geno Smith ($5,700), and Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800). All three of them have edges offered above +10% and exposure rates of 36.40%, 26.60%, and 22.20% respectively.
- There are different reasons for each of these guys being valuable. Jayden Daniels is able to get there with his legs and the Commanders have one of the highest team totals on the slate. He is the most expensive QB of these three, but also has by far the highest projection and ceiling combo.
- Tua’s Dolphins have one of the top-five highest team totals as well, but he projects more middle-of-the-pack. His exposure rate is bumped up by being a solid value (34.50% 3x rate in the Paydirt simulations) as well as being tied to Tyreek Hill ($7,200) and Jonnu Smith ($4,100), who we will talk about later.
- Geno Smith is a middle ground in terms of price and projection, but plays at the fastest pace in the league and has volume on his side, leading to a higher ceiling than the other QBs in his range.
RB Edge Distributions
Above are the top-five options are RB in terms of positive edge offered.
The highest positive edge offered here goes to Rhamondre Stevenson, who finds himself in an interesting spot as a big underdog. His exposure rate in winning lineups from the simulations was 21.30%, 2.5x higher than his projected ownership of 8.05%, making him a very interesting GPP option. If you play him and the Patriots D/ST together you’ll end up having all the relative value you could need in GPPs.
Some other high positive edges offered here:
- Bucky Irving ($5,300) as a big favorite against the Giants and their silly QB situation.
- James Conner ($6,500) in a pace-up spot against Geno Smith, making for a nice game-stack correlation piece based on presumed game script for the Cardinals.
- De’Von Achane ($7,500) across from Rhamondre Stevenson as the most popular RB play on the slate.
There is a wide spread of salary ranges here to take advantage of, though admittedly the workloads are a bit scary.
WR Edge Distributions
Similar to the RB options this week, we have a nice spread of salary ranges in the WR charts.
There are four WRs with strong positive edges of +10% offered from the Paydirt Contest Sims:
- Noah Brown ($4,200) is a cheaper upside piece to be paired with Jayden Daniels as part of a QB+1.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300) is a midrange option paired with Geno Smith and putting up WR1 numbers over the last four weeks.
- Kayshon Boutte ($3,500) experiencing some flop-lag after letting down the industry as a chalk piece in Week 11.
- Jakobi Meyers ($5,100) seeing a price drop after only pulling in 14% of the targets and hitting 8.8 PPR points last week.
Of this group we have two stacking pieces with strong QBs from the contest sims and two one-off options that we can look to for value.
There are two WRs with ownership projections of 15%+ this week that carry heavy negative edge numbers in the contest sims. You’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see who you should fade on the high end!
TE Edge Distributions
Above are all the TEs on the slate that currently have an edge that is positive.
This week is all about the value TE from the contest sims. While guys like Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers have strong medians, they don’t offer enough value or enough of an ownership discount to end up winning GPPs in the simulations more than the cheap guys. Jonnu Smith ($4,100) and Zach Ertz ($3,800) make up the best options at TE with edges offered of +17.71% and +7.43%. Their win rate in the sims were 30.60% and 17.70% respectively, while their projected ownership is in the 10-12% range.
As mentioned in the QB section, Jonnu is one of the main reasons that Tua ends up being undervalued. He is such a strong play that he pulls Tagovailoa along for the ride towards the top of the contests. Zach Ertz is the opposite, whereas Jayden Daniels is such a great play that when paired with Ertz we see the cheaper TE end up optimal.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
The contest sims have a pretty narrow view on QB this week, and that usually turns out to be a good thing. It lets us block out a lot of the noise from the other mid-tier spots and really just focus on what studs we want to utilize at RB and WR within the remaining salary cap.
Another nice part of the contest sims’ decisions this week is that we have a lot of range in the salary distributions, which means we have a wide set of roster construction paths that we can take. You can pay all the way up at QB and all the way down at WR, or you can play a full mid-range lineup. There are options with positive edge in every spot!
Based on the contest sims and edges offered, I think starting builds with either a Miami stack of Tua/Tyreek/Jonnu or going with a skinny stack of Jayden Daniels with Zach Ertz or Terry McLaurin feels like a very strong base to build from. If you go with a Washington stack, adding in Rhamondre Stevenson for some extra relative value and then surrounding those guys with a bunch of ownership makes for a great single entry strategy.
Whatever path you choose, I hope it’s the right one!
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.