GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 12.
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Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Lions at Colts
Anthony Richardson ($5,600) – Josh Downs ($6,200) – Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300)
Anthony Richardson had himself a day last week against the Jets. He completed 66% of his passes, threw for a TD to Josh Downs, and also ran for two TDs, both of which were designed rushes that came in the red zone. It’s a great sign for his fantasy value going forward as the Colts are clearly committed to utilizing Richardson to his strengths when he’s on the field.
The matchup this week with Detroit isn’t easy on paper but Richardson may be catching the Lions at an opportune time. They just lost starting LB Alex Anzalone last week, who was second in the team in tackles, and with Jonathan Taylor also in the backfield causing havoc, this is certainly a spot where the Colts will likely try and use Richardson in the open field once again.
As for how to approach this game, I also see this as a great time to continue to buy low on Josh Downs, who has become the clearcut number one WR in this offense and enters the game with an elite 27% target share on the season. Downs should work well against this Detroit defense as well, whose aggressiveness can often leave their corners in bad spots, especially over the middle. While they often stiffen up in the red zone, they also have allowed some big games to opposing slot receivers, including Cooper Kupp (14-110-1), Chris Godwin (7-117-1), and Jayden Reed (5-113).
I don’t think Downs is going to go for 14 catches, but the game script will likely keep Richardson dropping back well into the fourth quarter. This could lead to Downs seeing double-digit targets in this spot.
On the flip side, you can’t not love the low 7k price on Jahmyr Gibbs this week. On top of just being one of the most explosive runners in the league and a great all-around back, if this game does stay competitive and Downs and Richardson go off, it will likely mean more snaps for Gibbs who tends to be the better receiving option, and preferred 2-minute back for Detroit. The Colts are also prone to giving up big plays to RBs and have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season.
Given the massive 50+ game total attached to this one, you could go deeper and add in another Lion like Sam LaPorta ($4,300) but starting lineups with Gibbs seems like the easy move. If this one reaches its potential and develops into a close shootout, his ppr scoring alone may push him to a 4x day.
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels ($7,000)
Daniels only produced 15 and eight rushing yards in his last two starts, but it’s important to remember the context. He was up against two of the premier rush defenses in the league in the Steelers (eighth EPA per rush) and Eagles (sixth EPA per rush), and also playing on short rest vs Philadelphia. That’s not an excuse, but it certainly does explain at least some of the poor output from those games.
This week, he comes in off longer rest and faces the Cowboys, who are dead last in EPA per play vs the rush and have allowed some monster games of late to opposing QBs. For the season, Dallas has now given up the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and has allowed over 50 yards rushing to two of the last three opposing QBs they have faced as well.
Daniels is the most expensive QB on the slate, so that may work to keep his ownership down in DFS this week, but at 7k flat, he’s a very inexpensive top dog at the position. If you’re not building around a cheap name at QB, or just have room to splash around and want more upside, he’s a great name to consider adding either as a naked option at the top of lineups, or with one of the Commanders’ pass-catchers added on.
Running Back
Higher End: De’Von Achane ($7,500)
Achane delivered a decent day last week, finding the end zone for the fourth time in four games against the Raiders while accumulating 105 totals and four receptions. 20.5 DKFP (his Week 11 total) is nothing to sneeze at but as we’ve seen from Achane since he started to take a more defined bellcow role, his upside is much higher. He went for 26.1 and 32.1 DKFP in consecutive weeks vs the Cardinals and Bills, and this week faces a Patriots rush defense that has been regressing hard.
The Patriots now rank 23rd in EPA per play against the rush and have allowed 10 rushing TDs to opposing RBs on the season (the seventh-most in the league). With Achane almost a lock now for 20+ touches in this spot, and his price still well under 8k, building lineups around the upside of one of the most explosive backs in the league, once again this week, is a no-brainer.
Lower End: Rachaad White ($5,400)
White has averaged 16.57 FP over his last four games, which would place him around RB12 in FP/g over the full season. He’s actually become a more efficient RB for fantasy since he started splitting up the early down carries with rookie Bucky Irving, but his DFS price has now dipped well below 6k, to where he’s priced around far less productive RBs who are also in split or less defined lead roles.
Regardless, White’s a fantastic receiver and still gets tons of red zone work, which has allowed him to find the end zone four times now in his last four games. The Giants are also a terrific matchup for White to keep that TD streak going. They’re 27th in EPA against the rush and have been gashed repeatedly by opposing RBs the last month or so.
I’d rather pay up for two studs this week at RB if possible, but if you need a flex option or are building around a cheap RB thesis, then White has to be a name you include in your GPP pool for Week 12.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Calvin Ridley ($5,700)
I love this spot for Ridley who looks vastly underpriced given the matchup. The Texans’ defense isn’t without talent and does have 14 INTs on the season, but they are prone to lapses. On the season, the Texans have given up 16 TDs to opposing WRs and generally, it’s been the opposing team’s best WR who have been able to get over on Houston’s corners.
Ridley is also just playing much better than he was at the beginning of the season. He’s now averaged over 14.0 yards per catch in four straight games and has an elite 25% target share on the season. Last week, he and Will Levis connected on a 50+ yard TD that was called back, and had to settle for a muted 9.8 DKFP output, which has helped keep his salary under 6k this week. While there is some tail risk from Levis regressing a little, he’s undoubtedly one of my favorite plays this week and a great way to get legit WR1 upside at under 6k.
Lower End: Devaughn Vele ($3,900)
The Raiders may potentially be without their top three corners backs this week, and that’s going to be a massive issue for them given how well the Broncos offense has looked over their last few games. Vele has also started to take the lead as the clear wide receiver two in this offense and played on a season-high 42 snaps last week, which makes him a legit breakout candidate for Week 12.
The Broncos also love his versatility and have been using him more on downfield routes, and his big frame and good hands makes him a good mismatch for opposing safeties or nickel corners. With the Raiders likely focused on shutting down Courtland Sutton this could be a big spot for Vele, who did produce 10.4 DKFP last week and has the kind of upside this week that could produce 5x returns at under 4k.
Tight End
Trey McBride ($5,600)
This week should be McBride’s come to Jesus moment. He leads the team with 65 targets but has zero TDs on the season to date, a fact he could easily rectify vs the Seahawks. This game has a tight spread and the Arizona team total is over 24.0 this week, so we should expect the Cardinals to make a lot of trips into the red zone.
In terms of matchup, the Seahawks have athletic corners and will deploy some cover-three on defense, which often leaves the short middle of the field open, where McBride often does his best work. I see this Seahawks-Cardinals game being close and competitive, which should allow McBride to potentially approach his ceiling in targets as well. It’s just a good upside spot for a talented TE who is still affordable at under 6k.
Defense/Special Teams
Chicago Bears ($2,500)
I think it’s perfectly reasonable to go back to the Bears this week. Chicago may have trouble closing out games, but their defense has often been the reason they are in games to begin with. They have nine INTs on the season, seven of which have come at home, and managed to pick off Jordan Love in the red zone last week and prevent what looked like an inevitable Packers TD.
This week they get a worse QB in Sam Darnold, who has ten INTs in ten starts and threw five INTs between Week’s 8-9 vs two of the worst secondaries in the league in Indianapolis and Jacksonville. It’s heavily skewed by a couple of big games, but the Bears DST is also averaging 10.5 DKGP at home this season, vs 5.3 on the road. If you are going to use them as a cheap option, it’s best to do so in Chicago where the elements work in their favor vs a dome QB like Darnold.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
