There are quite a few interesting trends to consider when casting predictions for Week 12’s Steelers vs. Browns TNF throwdown. But, we’ll get to those later.
First, let’s take stock of the moneyline, spread, and game total betting splits for Steelers vs. Browns, which are reflections of the predictions being made by bettors ahead of TNF.
Game splits
Moneyline
The Steelers (-192) winning is the popular prediction, with Pittsburgh seeing 91% of the moneyline bets vs. the Browns (+160). Now, those bets account for 90% of the moneyline handle. While that’s a positive difference for Cleveland, it’s hardly a lean.
Spread
This is where the major lean is. But first, let’s account for the spread’s movement.
This opened at 4.5, took a slight dip, then peaked at 5.5. From there, it’s been a steady decline to 3.5. So, while the splits for this play still carry weight, it’s important to note that some bettors were working with a very different spread. And things could change further if this gets down to 2.5.
The lean here goes to the underdog, Cleveland. Browns ATS bettors have accounted for 33% of the spread handle on just 17% of the spread handle vs. the Steelers. This is a much more significant lean to consider when making your Steelers vs. Browns predictions today.
Total
This went from an opening 41-point mark all the way to 36-even before popping back up to 37.
That movement very much tracks once you look at these splits. The under has seen 62% if the game-total handle on just 43% of the game-total bets. The amount of movement makes it tougher to attack the current number, but there’s a clear preferred angle for the sharps.
System to note
Road favorites are 45-19 straight up this season. Specifically, AFC road favorites facing teams within their own division are 8-3 straight up — since last season, they’re 20-11.
Not a whole lot of value with Pittsburgh’s -192 odds, but still something to take note of.
Trends to note
To close this preview out, here’s a look at active trends to note while casting your Steelers vs. Browns predictions:
- Not only have the Steelers won five straight, they’ve also covered in five straight.
- Russell Wilson has 186-plus passing yards in his last eight games. (Passing yards O/U is 184.5.)
- The Browns have lost the first half in their last seven games vs. the AFC North.
- David Njoku has 46 or more receiving yards in his last six games vs. the AFC North. (Receiving yards O/U is 45.5.)
- Pat Freiermuth has at least 19 receiving yards in each of the last six games that the Steelers were playing as favorites after a win. (Receiving yards O/U is 17.5.)
- Cleveland has given up the game’s first touchdown in six straight.
- Najee Harris has logged at least 16 receiving yards in the last five games he’s been favored. Also, Harris has scored a TD in the last four games that the Steelers were favored vs. another AFC North team.
- Last note on Harris: He has logged 69-plus rushing yards in the last five November games that Pittsburgh has been favored. (Rushing yards O/U is 67.5.)
- In the last five games that Pittsburgh was coming off a win, George Pickens logged at least 74 receiving yards. (Receiving yards O/U is 57.5.)
- The Browns have won the first quarter in five straight vs. the Steelers.
- In the last five instances that he’s played in Week 12, Nick Chubb has logged at least 16 receiving yards. (Receiving yards O/U is 3.5.)
- Cedric Tillman has logged 47-plus receiving yards in four straight. (Receiving yards O/U is 43.5.)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
