I put this one out earlier in the week on Twitter, expecting the number to climb like it did. The Steelers are a pretty neutral matchup here, ranking slightly below NFL league average in terms of passing yards allowed per game. But Jameis Winston has been slinging it since taking over the starting job for the Browns.
Winston has blown past his TNF prop numbers in all three of his starts this season, including games of 334 yards against the Ravens and 395 yards last week in New Orleans. Admittedly, those are two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, so the matchup against the Chargers is probably the most comparable here.
Even with the Chargers ranking above average against the pass, Winston was able to find his way to 235 yards in a loss. I’m not too worried about game script in this one, as pretty much all avenues should set up for Jameis to be airing it out. The Steelers rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, so it’s unlikely that’s how Cleveland finds success in this game.
As a home underdog, Winston may be asked to throw the ball more late if his team winds up trailing, which is always a nice spot to be when backing passing yardage. But even if the Browns impress here and are leading against this Steelers team, the production to take that lead is likely from the passing game.
I backed Winston at a great opening number, but as of Thursday morning I’d still back the over of 216.5 for the same amount, playing it up to 225. If you want to turn this into a Same Game Parlay pick, using some ladders here along with touchdown passes is probably the way to go.
PLAY: Jameis Winston 200+ Passing Yards (-120) 1.5-units
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