These are my picks to win every Week 12 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 12 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Commanders over Cowboys- The Commanders have lost back-to-back games after starting the season 7-2 but this is the perfect bounce-back spot for them. In two games with Cooper Rush, the Cowboys have been outscored 68-16. The Cowboys don’t have a real running game and have a shaky defense and that makes it nearly impossible to compete with a backup QB. Jayden Daniels and this offense should run the ball all over Dallas and control the time of possession. The Cowboys will have very limited scoring opportunities and the Washington secondary which can be shaky should have no problem holding up against Cooper Rush.
Texans over Titans- The Texans got their season back on track by decimating the Cowboys last week. With Nico Collins and Joe Mixon healthy, this offense is just a different beast. Over his career, CJ Stroud has performed much better at home than on the road. This offense should be able to put up enough points that Will Levis can’t keep up. The Titans’ only win in their past six games was in overtime against the Patriots. Without DeAndre Hopkins, they lack a serious downfield passing threat, and their run game has not been up to scratch. It’s hard to envision the Titans scoring enough to beat Houston.
Chiefs over Panthers- The Chiefs just suffered their first loss of the season against the Bills but this is a good spot for them to get right. The Bills have one of the most explosive offenses in football and the Chiefs just weren’t able to keep up with the lack of explosivity in their offense. However, against the Panthers, the Chiefs’ defense should dominate. They will be able to put pressure on Bryce Young and that is when he has been very mistake-prone throughout his career. Carolina is certainly an improved team but if this game comes down to the Chiefs needing a big score or a big stop to win the game, I would back them over the Panthers on both sides of the ball.
Lions over Colts- The Lions are on a tear and dismantled the Jaguars last week. However, this Colts team played really well against the Jets last week to keep their season alive. Anthony Richardson had one of his best games as a pro and with all of the weapons they have available, they can be really tough to guard. That being said, the Lions’ offense is a juggernaut and should be able to put up points on anybody. Unlike against the Jets, that will force Anthony Richardson to take more risks to keep up with Detroit which is when he can start to make mistakes. Detroit’s defense now ranks 2nd in the NFL in EPA/play and should contain the Colts’ offense enough to win this game.
Broncos over Raiders- The Broncos beat the Raiders by 16 points earlier this season when these two teams met. That loss was the start of a six-game losing streak that the Raiders are riding into this game. The Raiders are completely lost on both sides of the ball and are one of the worst-coached teams in the league. Meanwhile, after a brutal back-to-back stretch against the Ravens and Chiefs, the Broncos bounced back with a dominant win over the Falcons. Bo Nix is playing really well and Denver has the third-best defense in the league by EPA/play. They should control this game and get the road win over the Raiders.
Medium Confidence
Dolphins over Patriots- The Dolphins are starting to play pretty well since Tua Tagovailoa returned at QB. They lost two games by a combined four points against the Cardinals and Bills but have since dominated the Raiders and comfortably beaten the Rams. They still have an outside shot at a wildcard spot in the AFC and should have a major effort ready for this game against New England. Drake Maye has increased the ceiling of this Patriots team but he still doesn’t know how to win games. The Patriots did beat the Bears but have lost close games to the Titans and Rams over the past three weeks. The Dolphins should just have too much offense for New England.
Buccaneers over Giants- The Bucs played a brutal stretch of games against the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers before hitting a much-needed bye week. The Bucs should come out of the bye week feeling refreshed and ready to take on the Giants who are totally in flux. Tommy Devito will be the starting quarterback for the Giants moving forward and Daniel Jones will likely not take another snap for the Giants. There are reports that players in the locker room are unhappy with the way that things have been handled and this team’s mental status is unknown. The Bucs still have a lot of major offensive weapons including Mike Evans, who should be making his return this week, and should outscore New York.
Eagles over Rams- The Eagles have won six games in a row and seem to be improving every week. Their run game with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, counter-balanced by the deep threat of A.J. Brown, makes them really tough to defend. Their young defense has also improved exponentially since the season started and their young corners should be able to hang with Kupp and Nacua. The Rams scraped by the Patriots, lost to the Dolphins and beat the Seahawks in overtime the past three weeks but they could be running out of luck here. The Eagles should dominate in the trenches and get a win.
Vikings over Bears- The Bears are on a major downward slide heading into this game. Starting with their Hail Mary loss to the Commanders, the Bears have lost four straight games and Caleb Williams is regressing back to the poor play he showed at the beginning of the season. The Chicago offense is 24th in EPA/play and should be eaten alive by the Brian Flores defense that has dominated so many teams this season. The Vikings offense has had some hiccups the past couple of weeks but they should still have enough firepower from Justin Jefferson and co. to take care of business in this game.
Ravens over Chargers- The Chargers just keep finding ways to win with great defense and timely offense. That being said, the Chargers might have a ceiling. Their only three losses have come against the Chiefs, Steelers and Cardinals. They have beaten all of the teams they should beat by playing smart football but that has also held them back against superior opponents. The Ravens’ offense should be able to score, despite the Chargers’ good defense, and force Justin Herbert to push the ball down the field. It should be an exciting game but the Baltimore offense will be too much for Los Angeles to keep up with.
Coin-Flip Games
Steelers over Browns- The Steelers knocked off the Ravens to seize control of first place in the AFC North. They are now facing another divisional foe on a short week on Thursday Night Football. The Steelers should be able to win this game but I have it on the coin-flip tier because of some potential wild weather in Cleveland that could lead to some messy offense from both teams. That being said, the Steelers have the better defense, better quarterback and the most explosive offensive player on the field in George Pickens. That should be enough to get them the victory in tough conditions.
Packers over 49ers- The Packers have won five of their past six games and are one of the hottest teams in the league. Meanwhile, the 49ers have real issues. Their offense still has not clicked into place with all of the injuries they’ve had to deal with. The 49ers won tight one-possession games against the Bucs and Cardinals while losing to the Seahawks and Chiefs over their past four games. The Packers’ offense should be able to move the ball and their defense should hold up. This should be a really fun competitive game but the home-field advantage gives the Packers a slight edge.
Cardinals over Seahawks- The Cardinals are playing really well at the moment but this should be a really tight divisional game against the Seahawks. Seattle just beat the 49ers and this game is now hugely important in an NFC West race that any team can win. The Cardinals do have the better offense at the moment, ranking 9th in offensive EPA/play compared to the Seahawks who rank 18th. However, both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA/play so if either side can step up on that side of the ball, they have a big edge. Ultimately, this is a true coin-flip game but Kyler Murray is the quarterback I trust more so I will back Arizona.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
