For the Week 12 edition of Thursday Night Football, the Browns and Steelers will play an exciting AFC North matchup in Cleveland.
There are plenty of breakdowns for the game’s outlook, player props and more, but this article will look at some of the top DFS options to help you build your Showdown team.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st]
Captain Plays
Hitting on your captain (CPT) is essential to having Showdown DFS success on DraftKings. Players drafted as the captain earn 1.5x fantasy points, so they can make or break your entry. Here are my favorite captain plays for this week’s TNF matchup:
George Pickens ($16,500)
George Pickens is having a breakout season for the Steelers. He is fourth in the league in receiving yards and has been excelling with Russell Wilson as his starting quarterback. He is averaging 91.3 receiving yards in the four games with Wilson at the helm and just had a season-high eight catches against Baltimore. Pickens can take the top off of a defense and make incredible 50/50 catches, but he can also use his speed to pick up major YAC.
The Browns rank 16th in defensive EPA/dropback this season. They have a tough defense, yet they have been liable to give up some explosive passes. That is good news for Pickens, who has a catch of 30-plus yards in each of his last five games. Both of these teams pride themselves on their defense but if there is one game-changing player on either offense that can take the game over, it’s Pickens. That makes him an ideal captain pick for what could be a lower-scoring game.
Najee Harris ($13,800)
Najee Harris is another player who has benefitted from Russell Wilson taking over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback. Justin Fields was running the ball a decent amount and taking away carries that would have gone to Harris. With Wilson at the helm, Harris is averaging 19.8 rushing attempts per game. It also helps that the Steelers are 4-0 under Wilson which is giving Najee Harris more carries to run out the clock in positive scripts. In his past five games, Harris has had three performances of 100 rushing yards or more and three games with a rushing touchdown. If Harris can generate similar numbers to that, he is a solid captain pick for this game.
The Browns are a good matchup for Harris, as well. They rank 25th in defensive EPA/rush and 24th in opponent rushing yards per game. Just last week, Taysom Hill ran for an incredible 138 yards and three touchdowns against Cleveland. The Steelers have established a deep passing attack to George Pickens and Calvin Austin, which requires opposing safeties to have to constantly fear that the deep shot is coming. That should result in a lighter box and Harris being able to find room to run.
Value Picks
Jerry Jeudy ($8,000)
Just like the QB change in Pittsburgh benefitting George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy has had a massive boost since Jameis Winston took over as the starting quarterback in Cleveland. Jeudy had a pretty quiet start to his Cleveland career, going over 70 receiving yards in just two of his first seven games with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Jeudy has cleared 70 receiving yards in all three games with Winston, including going for 142 yards and a touchdown last week. Jeudy has emerged as the go-to target for Winston and should be able to put up some decent numbers in this game where the Browns will be forced to throw to contend with the Steelers.
Cedric Tillman ($7,000)
Cedric Tillman has been a breakout performer in the past month. Through the first six games of the season, Tillman had three catches for nine yards. Since, Tillman has been a huge target for Jameis Winston, with 16 catches for 221 yards and three touchdowns in the past three games. Along with Jeudy, he should benefit from Winston’s willingness to push the ball down the field and rack up some yardage.
Browns D/ST ($4,000)
The Browns have had one of the best defensive units in the league over the past few seasons. There has been a definite drop-off this season but they also had a historically bad offense over the first few weeks of the season. That puts a lot of strain on a defense and, eventually, they break. The return of Nick Chubb helps this defense a lot, too. Chubb can keep the sticks moving and keep the defense off the field so they are fresh to get after Russell Wilson. Wilson has been really good for the Steelers but he is far less mobile than Justin Fields was. That has resulted in Wilson being sacked 11 times in the past three games. The Browns’ pass rush should be able to get after Wilson and get some sacks, while also forcing mistakes. Wilson has thrown an interception in back-to-back games and if the Browns can make it three straight, they could have some success in this game.
Dustin Hopkins ($4,800)
The Steelers rank eighth in the NFL in red zone touchdown defense, only allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 48% of their red zone drives. There are some turnovers in the mix there, but basically, half of the time opposing offenses get into the red zone against Pittsburgh, they are forced to kick field goals. That is good news for Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins, who should see a lot of action in this game. Hopkins is 10-for-12 from inside 50 yards this season and if the Browns get stalled out in the red zone, Hopkins has been money from that range. The Browns’ offense best chance at success is deep passes to Jeudy and Tillman, but once they get close to the end zone, Pittsburgh has a lot of advantages that could hold the Browns to kicking field goals.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
