Ancient rivals meet in Week 12 when the Steelers visit the Browns on Thursday Night Football. Pittsburgh enters the contest as 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 37 points.
With such a low point total, this one has all the makings of a classic AFC North slugfest. While Cleveland’s offense has gotten a boost from the play of quarterback Jameis Winston, this is still a team that struggles to move the ball. On the other side, the Steelers are finding ways to win without scoring touchdowns, defeating the Ravens 18-16 last Sunday thanks to six Chris Boswell field goals.
I’d expect Pittsburgh to come out with a run-first approach, given the expected cold weather and precipitation in Cleveland Thursday night. That should mean plenty of touches for starting running back Najee Harris. The former Pro Bowler has had success in this spot, gaining 493 rushing yards and four touchdowns in six career games against the Browns.
Due to the offensive limitations on both teams, Harris reaching the end zone isn’t a guarantee. However, Cleveland’s defensive line has been vulnerable against the running game. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Browns are giving up 212 rush yards over expected, fifth-worst in the league. A Steelers team running the ball at the second-highest rate in football (34.3 attempts per game) is sure to take advantage.
This one has all the makings of a sloppy, short-week matchup. That’s bad news for most skill position players, but not Harris. Expect head coach Mike Tomlin to lean on his RB1 early and often as the Steelers plow their way to another ugly victory.
The Play: Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+105) or Najee Harris first touchdown scorer (+450)
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