The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are set to face off in an AFC North matchup with these two teams trending in opposite directions on this week’s Thursday Night Football.
Pittsburgh enters this game with an 8-2 record and has won five consecutive games. The quarterback change has increased the ceiling of this team and Russell Wilson has continued to look solid under center. Even still, Pittsburgh is a defensive-minded team that has allowed the second-fewest points on the season and ranks eighth in yards allowed.
Cleveland does not have as positive of an outlook and holds a 2-8 record on the season. While Deshaun Watson’s injury will headline the storylines surrounding the team, there has not been much of a change with or without him on the field. If anything, there has been more of a spark with Jameis Winston running the show. Overall, the Browns rank 31st in scoring, 27th in yards, 24th in points allowed and 19th in yards given up.
The Steelers enter the matchup as 3.5-point favorites with -198 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns are considered +164 underdogs on the moneyline with the over/under set at just 37 points.
Here’s a look at some of the most intriguing player props ahead of Thursday night’s matchup.
Jameis Winston Under 216.5 Passing Yards (-110)
While the season may very well be off the rails for the Browns, this is an important stretch for Jameis Winston’s career. The former first-overall pick is eyeing another chance at being a starting quarterback and a strong finish to the season would help this case greatly. Winston is coming off an impressive output last week where he threw for 395 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Saints.
Unfortunately for Winston, this is a much more difficult matchup. In addition to being the second-best scoring defense, the Steelers have forced the third-most turnovers this season and also have allowed the fourth fewest passing touchdowns. Winston has thrown for over 216.5 passing yards in all three games as a starter thus far. However, this was against the Saints, Chargers and Ravens who rank 29th, 12th and 32nd in passing yards allowed. The Chargers have been the closest thing to the Steelers, but it took 46 pass attempts for him to reach 235 passing yards in that game.
Pittsburgh is an even more dominant defense with a pass rush that will cause some issues. Winston has battled the turnover bug throughout his career, which includes leading the league with 30 interceptions, and the Steelers have forced 11 interceptions and 10 fumbles already this season. Expect Winston to struggle in this game. Pittsburgh is completely comfortable taking the lead and milking the clock en route to a victory. Count on his opportunity being limited and for Winston to come back to statistical normalcy against the toughest defense he has played this year.
Russell Wilson 2+ Passing Touchdowns (+235)
Russell Wilson has now started four games under center for the Steelers and the team is 4-0 in those matchups. While Justin Fields made a solid case for why he deserved to remain the starter, the improved passing game has been evident with Wilson. Across his four starts, Wilson has averaged 235.5 passing yards per game and thrown for six touchdowns and two interceptions. He has thrown for two or more touchdowns in two of these four games.
Cleveland does not have an impressive defense. So far this year they rank 24th in points allowed and 19th in yards given up. They also are 14th in passing touchdowns allowed and have forced the third-fewest turnovers. The Browns have given up two or more passing touchdowns in six of the 10 games on the season and in each of the past five weeks.
Wilson has been given free rein in the offense and granted the freedom to attack through the air. The former Super Bowl Champion still has a high level of arm talent and there are capable pass catchers on the Steelers’ roster. The passing game will continue to be an area the Steelers look to count on and Wilson will be given the appropriate opportunities to tally two touchdowns through the air. Getting +235 odds for this is great value and the odds for throwing over 0.5 touchdowns is set at -230.
George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
The most notable wide receiver on the Steelers’ roster is George Pickens. The 23-year-old leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards, with a 400-yard gap between Pickens and the next pass-catcher in terms of receiving yards.
Pickens has seen his outlook change drastically since Wilson took over at quarterback. The Georgia product has tallied 365 receiving yards across the past four weeks with Wilson, compared to 363 receiving yards across the six games he played with Justin Fields. Pickens has recorded receiving outputs of 111, 74, 91 and 89 receiving yards across the four games with Wilson.
With a porous Browns’ defense and Pittsburgh operating more through the air, look for Pickens to be heavily involved once again. He has yet to be held to fewer than 57.5 receiving yards with the nine-time Pro Bowl QB and he has cleared this number in six of the 10 games overall. For the sake of this article, we will stick to this number, but there is also some value on the alternate lines such as 70+ yards at +115 odds and 80+ yards at +170 odds.
Cedric Tillman Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
There have been plenty of disastrous storylines surrounding the Browns this season, but Cedric Tillman has been a bright spot. The former third-round pick was limited to just 224 receiving yards last year as a rookie and was held to just nine receiving yards across the opening six weeks of the season. Tillman has turned a corner since, recording receiving yard outputs of 81, 99, 75 and 47 across the past four games.
Winston’s ability and willingness to air out the ball have been a huge factor in this uptick in production. While the Steelers have an impressive defense, Tillman has climbed up the pecking order for receivers.
While I still expect the Browns to struggle overall in the passing game, 44.5 receiving yards is too low of a total for Tillman. He has received eight or more targets in each of the past four games and it should be expected for this level of volume to continue. Count on him to eclipse 44.5 receiving yards once again as he continues to make more of a name for himself, even if it is amid a frustrating overall offensive output.
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