Division games often are lower-scoring due to the familiarity between the teams — this Thursday Night Football clash between the Steelers and Browns has a paltry total of 37 points. Familiarity is one reason, but the strengths and weaknesses of both teams are others.
Pittsburgh is 31st on the season in passing rate. That number has seen a slight uptick since Russell Wilson became the starter, but the Steelers are still only 28th over his four starts. Pittsburgh continues with their tried-and-true formula of running the ball and playing good defense.
They should have some success on the ground against the Browns defense. On the season, Cleveland has allowed the 11th-highest EPA per carry. Their 4.8 yards per carry allowed is tied for the fourth-most, while their 14 rushing touchdowns allowed ranks fifth-most.
For Cleveland, the path of least resistance is clearly through the air, as the Steelers’ run defense is the second-best in the league. With Jameis Winston under center, the QB doesn’t want to hand the ball off anyways as he’s attempted 41, 46, and 46 passes since becoming the starter. That said, the Steelers’ pass defense hasn’t been a pushover, posting the seventh-best EPA per dropback while racking up 24 sacks and 11 interceptions.
These teams are on different ends of the spectrum right now. Pittsburgh has lost only two games on the season, while Cleveland has only two wins. Pittsburgh has won five straight… Cleveland has dropped the last two.
Winston does have a wide range of outcomes and is always in play to throw for 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns, so Cleveland will have a puncher’s chance. Plus, it’s an island game on Thursday, and freaky things have been known to happen in these midweek matchups.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Pittsburgh -3.5 on the road with the game total at 37.
As for Wednesday’s injury report, there is no one of significance. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (PIT @ CLE)
Captain’s Picks
Najee Harris ($13,800 CP): The story I’m telling is that the Steelers will control this game on both sides of the line of scrimmage. If the outcome ends up being that Winston puts up points, then a different one must be told.
I referenced in the opening that the Steelers want to run the ball, while the Browns have had difficulty stopping the run. While Harris is only seeing around 60% of the snaps, he dominates the red zone chances and rushed 18, 21, 19, and 21 times over the last four games. Harris has scored double-digit FPTS in each of the last five, with three outings over 19 points and a high of 23.2.
UTIL Plays
Steelers D/ST ($5,400): I’ll go with the good old running back/defense correlation for this one. Winston has attempted over 40 passes in each of the last three games. More dropbacks mean more chances for sacks and interceptions. This unit has racked up 11 interceptions, eight fumbles, 24 sacks, and one touchdown on the season. It has produced five games with double-digit FPTS.
George Pickens ($11,000): The passing likely won’t voluminous for Pittsburgh, but that doesn’t mean the Steelers will not throw at all. Over the last four games, Wilson has attempted at least 28 passes in each one. His main target has been Pickens, who has garnered nine, five, seven and 12 targets. Pickens has converted those for double-digit FPTS in each contest, with two games over 20 FPTS.
Jerry Jeudy ($8,000): The Browns aren’t going to be able to run against the stout Pittsburgh defense, and they don’t want to anyways. To the air they go! Over the last three games, Jeudy has received eight, 11, and 11 targets, converting those into double-digit FPTS each week with a high mark of 29.2. I don’t expect a ceiling game, but the volume should provide some semblance of a floor.
Fades
Nick Chubb ($9,000): This will be Chubb’s fifth game back since returning from injury. In the four games he’s played, Chubb has received 11, 15, 16 and 11 carries while failing to exceed 52 yards in any contest. He’s a zero in the passing game and the Steelers’ run defense is one of the best in the league. Chubb has scored sub-10 FPTS in three of four contests this season.
THE OUTCOME
It’s Thursday night and the game is in Cleveland, so I’d definitely make a “Jameis Winston balls out” lineup. But, the likeliest scenario is that the Steelers shut down the Cleveland’s run game and force Winston into some mistakes, which would allow the Steelers to ground-and-pound in the Dawg Pound, forcing the home team into submission.
Final Score: Steelers 23, Browns 10
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (PIT @ CLE)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
