I put this tweet out earlier in the week with a few plays, which have moved in my favor. But I’ll include what I’m comfortable playing the games to in my breakdowns below. Here’s what I’m on for CFB Week 13.
North Carolina at Boston College +3.5 (-110) – 1-unit
UNC has picked up some momentum this season, winning road games over Virginia and FSU before returning home and getting a win over Wake Forest. But the Tar Heels had a much tougher time earlier in the season on the road, and BC has been a tough team lately. The Eagles have been a far superior team at home this season, and return to Chestnut Hill here after a tough road loss.
Boston College turned to Grayson James at quarterback in a home win over Syracuse two weeks ago, and then as a massive road underdog gave SMU a good fight. The Eagles can take some of that momentum into a big home game here in a bounce-back spot against the Heels. The UNC offense runs through Omarion Hampton, and BC has a decent enough run defense to provide some resistance here. Look for the Eagles to keep this one tight at home, as they’ve done all season, and potentially pull the upset. Play to BC +3.
Indiana at Ohio State -12 (-110) – 2-units
Undefeated Indiana catching double digits in a matchup of top-five teams should scream to the public as a popular underdog play this week. But to me this feels like the spot that the Buckeyes flex their muscles against a team that’s over-performed. Don’t get me wrong, the Hoosiers have been a very solid team this season, but have not been tested anywhere close to the extent of what they’re going to be up against on Saturday afternoon.
Look for the Buckeyes’ defense to shutdown Indiana in this one, and even with the loss of their starting center, be able to run the ball effectively. Ohio State should be sending messages the rest of the way this season, with the No. 1-seed in the College Football Playoff still in sight. I’m expecting style points here, and would play it out to -13.5.
Kentucky +21 (-110) at Texas – 1-unit
Good spot play here for the Wildcats, catching a ton of points in Austin. Kentucky has really stepped up to the level of competition in big games this season, losing to Georgia 13-12, Tennessee 28-18 and defeating Ole Miss outright on the road. Texas is coming off a pretty lackluster 20-10 victory over Arkansas, and is also in a lookahead spot to a massive game next week.
Texas will be traveling to Kyle Field to face Texas A&M in the final game of the season, in a game that very well could decide who goes on to play in the SEC title game. The Longhorns don’t need any style points here, just a win. Kentucky is a tough team on the defensive side of the ball, and I expect them to keep this one inside of three scores.
Army vs. Notre Dame -13.5 (-120) – 2.5-units (Yankee Stadium)
I am a Notre Dame hater, but I just don’t understand this one. I feel like we saw this movie weeks ago when the Irish faced Navy in New Jersey, and ND dominated a game that finished 51-14. Army is undefeated, but have played absolutely nobody, with the best win coming over East Carolina.
Army is stepping into a completely different weight class here, and I expect it to go pretty similar to the last time the Irish faced a service academy. Notre Dame should almost be able to pick its score here, with the ability to stuff the run, and then pound the ball down Army’s throat on offense. Play out to -17 for me in a game I feel could be over by halftime.
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