One team is the overwhelmingly popular play in Week 11’s Monday Night Night Football contest — and on a couple fronts. But, that does not mean it’s the sharp prediction for Texans vs. Cowboys.
Let’s get into the predictions being made by going through the betting splits for Monday Night Football’s moneyline, spread and game total options for Texans vs. Cowboys.
Game splits
Moneyline
Houston is a large -325 favorite, so it’s not a huge shock to see 92% of the moneyline bets go in that direction. But, those bets have only accounted for 90% of the handle.
Very small difference in the percentages. But sometimes, a small, positive difference on an unpopular dog can make for a sound play.
Spread
Similar situation here, except the Cowboys have seen 20% of the handle on 17% of the bets. With there also being a slight lean toward Dallas on the moneyline, backing the Cowboys ATS may be the better option.
As for this spread, it opened at 6.5, bumped up to 7.5 and has settled right in the middle at 7-even.
Total
After opening at 43-even, which was this Monday Night Football matchup’s peak total, this has gone down to 41-even. Oddly, that movement does not align with the predictions being for Texans vs. Cowboys.
Sixty-four percent of the game-total bets have gone toward the over, along with 73% of the game-total handle. The over is a sharp and public play, yet the game-total has not exceeded its opening line.
Trends to note
There’s a trend that works in line with the spread’s splits:
- The Texans haven’t covered the spread in their last six games vs. the NFC.
Here are a few more trends to consider before making your Texans vs. Cowboys predictions:
- The Texans have won six straight following a loss.
- Joe Mixon has scored in the last six games that his team was coming off a loss.
- Mixon has also logged at least 102 rushing yards in four straight road games. (Rushing yards O/U is 86.5.)
- Nico Collins has logged 78 or more receiving yards in the last seven games he played where Houston was the favorite.
- The Texans have won the first half in seven consecutive games.
- The Cowboys have lost the first quarter in five straight at home. In each of those games, the Cowboys also gave up the game’s first touchdown.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
