It’s a Texas Two-Step for Monday Night Football. The dance could be a disaster. One Texas team is a step ahead of the other. Can the Cowboys strap up the boots and get back on beat or will they get their boots beat off by the new stars of the Lonestar State? Check out the Week 11 prime-time matchup between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys and some of the best bets you can take on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +7 (+100)
These are tough times in Texas. The state’s pro representatives in the AFC and NFC both have bad luck. The injury bug bit and bit hard. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott and the offense looks lost. The Texans’ offensive line is depleted and their elite receiving corps hasn’t been complete in weeks. Both are getting a little healthier and in desperate need of a win.
The seven-point spread is a slap in the face, but the Cowboys deserve it after last week’s embarrassing loss. Did they give up? Have they hung up their boots? No chance. They’re pros. They work too hard year-round. A prime-time home game is a wake-up call. The motivation will be there for Monday Night Football. But motivation isn’t the biggest factor. The Cowboys don’t have a quarterback. They couldn’t covert on third down last week. How will they keep pace with a Texans offense that is welcoming back Nico Collins?
This game comes down to the Cowboys’ defense. They can limit the Texans. CJ Stroud hasn’t looked great without elite receivers. His QB rating has been below 65 in three of the last four games. He’s been blitzed and pressured more than any quarterback in the league. His 30.2% QB Pressure Rate is the third-worst in the NFL. That’s led to the fourth-highest Bad Pass Percentage and six interceptions — more INTs than he threw in all of his rookie season. Nico Collins’ return will stretch the field and open up short passes and rushing lanes. That’s more bad news for a Cowboys defense that allows 4.7 yards per carry. There’s a reason that the road team that has lost three out of their last four is a seven-point favorite. The Texans’ offense has a path to victory and the Cowboys do not. That is their offense does not. Can the Cowboys’ defense get off the field, limit points and sneak away with a cover?
Turnovers come in various forms. There’s the obvious pick and fumble, but a sack is as good as a turnover. A sack statistically results in a turnover on downs for most drives. Hurries and pressure can stall drives. The Texans’ line is still a problem and the Cowboys’ pass rush presents a problem. Micah Parsons returned in Week 10 and picked up two sacks. The Cowboys rank near the top of the league in Pressure Rate, QB Knockdowns and Blitzes. That’s without Parsons. The Cowboys’ hopes and dreams depend on their defense’s ability to disrupt drives. Dallas won’t likely win, but dogs are covering in 2024. Big dogs are covering. A home dog with a chance on Monday Night Football is worth the plus money.
The Pick: Cooper Rush Over 0.5 interceptions (-155)
As long as Rush doesn’t get yanked, he’ll get picked. He’ll likely get yanked because of picks. The Texans’ defenders are no slouches. They’re above average. Their secondary is solid. They’ve conceded 21 passing TDs (second-most), but that shouldn’t be a concern in this matchup. The concern is turnovers. The Texans lead the AFC in INTs (13). They picked Jared Goff five times in Week 10. They’ll get at least one against Cooper Rush.
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