The nearly twelve weeks of discontent and curiosity has come to an end: Dave Canales has officially committed to Jonathon Brooks making his debut—and seeing the field—in the Panthers’ Week 12 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. He also mentioned that Adam Thielen has a good chance to return, as well.
Dave Canales says he “fully expects” Brooks to play Sunday for the Panthers, and Adam Thielen as well.
— Scott Fowler (@scott_fowler) November 18, 2024
This is fantastic news. However.
Anyone else have Brooks Anticipation Exasperation? I’m dubbing it as such. We’ve got a whopping sample size of zero for this guy, but seem to find ourselves writing about him week-over-week. I’ve got a bad case of BAE.
Still, this is exciting, because his potential is real. It’s a testament to just how talented an asset he is to this young, wayward, hopeful Carolina offense.
As for his Week 12 fantasy football outlook? Well—
Analysis
Maybe back in Week 9, before the Panthers gifted Chuba Hubbard with a hefty three-year extension, I could have seen this as a potential play. There are, after all, six teams on bye this week. Filling out FLEX slots is going to get a bit woolly this week. Knowing that Brooks would surely be, at worst, Hubbard’s 1B might have generated a hot hand situation in Carolina.
But it’s not Week 9. It’s Week 12, and Hubbard has rushed for 225 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games. Quite simply: he’s what’s working in this Panthers offense.
Chuba’s game this year has been 🔥@Hubbard_RMN | #KeepPounding pic.twitter.com/r75Sf1o4as
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 14, 2024
Not to mention: this is a game against the Chiefs, who are second in the league in defensive rushing DVOA. It’s a minus matchup for the Panthers offense across the board.
Do we have any reason to believe the Panthers will be inclined to give Brooks any more than five-to-eight touches? Chuba Hubbard, as laid bare above, has been an absolute beast. Carolina didn’t extend him just to let him know, two weeks later, they had every intention of letting Brooks get a run as feature back to see what they had for the future.
I would need to be desperate to run Brooks out at FLEX this week.
Bottom Line
Even if the Chiefs blow the Panthers out early—doubt it, considering how much they’ve played down to opponents across their entire three-year dynastic run—I can’t see the Panthers giving Brooks more than 12 touches. Against this Chiefs defense, which is among the most elite in the NFL in rushing DVOA, that’s a hard no for me.
Verdict: Sit Jonathon Brooks in Week 12; start him if you’re desperate at FLEX.
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