The Houston Texans are set to face off with the Dallas Cowboys in a cross-state matchup for the two Texas teams to conclude Week 11 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football.
This Monday night showdown does not carry the typical luster with the Cowboys entering with a 3-6 record and Cooper Rush set to start under center. Things have gone from bad to worse for Dallas this season with the team ranking in the bottom eight of the league in points produced, yards tallied, points allowed and yards given up. Dak Prescott is set to miss the remainder of the season and this is unfortunately looking like a lost year for the Cowboys.
The Houston Texans have not been quite as impressive as expected, but their goals for the season are still within reach. They enter this game with a 6-4 record and sit in first place in the AFC South.
The Texans enter this game as 7.5-point favorites and are -325 on the moneyline. The Cowboys are +260 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 41 for the matchup. With the stage fully set for Monday Night Football, here are four player props I like.
C.J. Stroud Over 237.5 Passing Yards (-125)
While the injury to Prescott and offensive struggles will steal most of the spotlight, the Cowboys’ defense has been equally concerning. Dallas ranks 31st in the NFL in points allowed and 27th in yards given up.
Enter C.J. Stroud, who should be eager to take advantage of this get-right spot. The Ohio State product had a tremendous rookie season but has taken a step back in his second year. This should not be viewed under too critical of a lens as the Texans have had a frustrating amount of injuries to their top pass catchers and this level of inconsistency is par for the course for a young quarterback. Even with the struggles, he has thrown for an average of 237.1 passing yards per game and 12 touchdowns.
With a poor defense in front of him and Stroud capable of playing much better than he has shown this season, expect the Texans to attack through the air. He led the NFL in passing yards per game last season at 273.9 and threw for over 237.5 passing yards in 11 of the 15 games he played last season. Expect tonight’s output to be more on par with last season’s performances as the Texans look to fully find their footing ahead of the playoffs.
Jake Ferguson Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
There are plenty of negative takeaways from the Cowboys’ season, but Jake Ferguson has been a bright spot. The third-year tight end has tallied 42 receptions for 358 yards across the eight games he has played. He has averaged 44.8 yards per game and gone over 34.5 receiving yards in four of the eight games. In the last two weeks with Cooper Rush as the quarterback, Ferguson has tallied 95 receiving yards.
The Texans’ defense has been a bit all over the place this season. They have allowed the third-fewest yards in the league but rank 18th in scoring defense. Houston also ranks third in passing yards allowed but dead last in passing touchdowns given up.
Expect the Cowboys to fall behind early and be forced to air the ball out. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, Ferguson will be looked to as the top pass-catching option. He has been targeted at least four times in every game and thrown the ball double-digit times twice this season. There will be enough volume thrown his direction and Ferguson should have no problem eclipsing 34.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football.
Nico Collins Anytime TD (+125)
The Houston Texans entered the season with one of the most impressive wide receiver units in the league. They made a splash in free agency signing Stefon Diggs to add to the already dangerous duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Unfortunately, all three have battled injuries this season with Diggs being ruled out for the season due to a torn ACL.
Collins will be returning to the field for this game for the first time since Week 5. At the time of his injury, Collins was leading the NFL with 567 receiving yards through the first five weeks along with three touchdowns. He has missed this extended period due to a hamstring injury. It felt there was growing momentum for Collins to make his return last week, but the organization showed some additional caution.
While it has been an extended period off, expect Collins to pick up right where he left off. He has caught a touchdown in three of the five games he has played this season and the porous Dallas defense presents a great opportunity to add to this. Expect the Texans to be focused on getting him back up to speed with the offense and there is no better way to do this than by giving him the opportunity for a touchdown. Capitalize on the +125 odds and be ready for Collins to provide a reminder of what an elite talent he is.
C.J. Stroud Longest Rush Over 7.5 Yards (+100)
While he will not be confused with Lamar Jackson on the field, C.J. Stroud is still plenty capable with his legs. On the season, Stroud has rushed the ball 32 times for 148 yards in 10 games. He has rushed the ball at least once in every game and has rushed for an average of 14.8 yards per game.
The Cowboys are an especially poor defense against the run, ranking 31st in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. They are also 23rd in net yards per rush attempt. Joe Mixon will be the biggest beneficiary of this, but Stroud also may lean on his legs a bit more often.
Setting the line at 7.5 yards for Stroud’s longest rush is great value here. He has recorded a rush for over 7.5 yards in six of the 10 games, including his longest of 25 yards this season. It takes just one run to break this, and expect Stroud to get a few different opportunities in tonight’s game.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
