The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $200K Sand Trap [$50K to 1st]
The Field
The RSM Classic represents the final official tournament of the year for the PGA TOUR. The fall swing used to be part of the FedEx Cup standings for the upcoming season but this year, it only works for reseeding purposes, so all the results gained here and over the last few months won’t flow into next year.
The event itself will be played at two courses due to the fading daylight, and it features a full 156-player field. We do have a stronger field than we have seen the last couple of weeks with two top 25 players leading the charger in Brian Harmon and last year’s RSM Classic winner Ludvig Aberg. Aberg is leading the betting odds at +800 on DraftKings Sportsbook with Harmon and John Deere Classic winner Davis Thompson behind him at +2200 (as of writing).
Even with two courses in play, this week will feature the regular PGA TOUR cutline, which means only the top-65 and ties will play after Friday.
The Course
Seaside Course, Sea Island, Georgia: Par 70, 7,055 yards
Plantation Course (Thursday/Friday only): Par 72, 7,058 yards
The tournament will once again feature two different courses. On Thursday and Friday, players will play the Seaside (the host course) and the Plantation course once each, and then the weekend players will play on Saturday and Sunday on the Seaside Course only. The dual courses in play at this event always add an extra element, as the weather draw can often play a large role in how the courses play on different days. The Plantation Course carries four par 5s (compared to only two for the Seaside course) and is generally much less wind-exposed, meaning it has the potential to play up to two shots easier than the host course. In 2022, we saw Sebastian Munoz open with a 60 on this easier venue, which gives you an idea of the kind of scoring available at this course. The Seaside course isn’t exactly tough either, as both of its par 5s will measure in under 570 yards in length, with eight to nine of the par 4s landing between 400-450 yards.
The Plantation Course typically plays as one of the easiest on the PGA TOUR and yielded a -1.561 stroke average in 2020, while the Seaside course played as the 16th-easiest at -1.1 strokes under par for the same year. Knowing which days your players will be on which course is important, and I’d suggest using the weather forecast to help you make decisions. Getting players with less breezy days on the Seaside course could be crucial to success.
The courses themselves are shorter in yardage and generally favor players who rely on accuracy over power. Both are positioned near the sea and feature TifEagle Bermuda greens, although it’s only the Seaside Course that is directly exposed to the sea with its more open and near-links-style setup. Many players who have had success at this event have also had success at other short seaside courses, like Hilton Head, Pebble Beach, and Waialae Country Club, which also feature Bermuda grass and smaller greens.
Two of the last four winners have won by being extremely proficient on approach. In 2021, Talor Gooch won by multiple strokes at Sea Island after gaining 6.3 strokes on approach for the week. In 2022, Canadian Adam Svensson won by two strokes but did most of his damage with the putter, gaining 9.3 strokes on the greens. Last season’s winner, Ludwig Aberg, split the difference gaining over 6.0 strokes putting but also 2.4 strokes on approach. Aberg also crushed the scoring record at this course as he managed to get to 29-under-par by shooting 61-61 on the Seaside Course on the weekend in what were generally ideal conditions
This is a short track, so there will be lots of birdie chances but players will also need to handle themselves well around these tricky green structures. Emphasize Bermuda putting specialists with great short games and short iron proximity stats this week when possible.
2024 Weather Update: The weather this season looks promising. There is almost zero chance of precipitation over all four days with sunny skies the norm over the entirety of the event. Wind will be prevalent over the first couple of days which could lead to some wave splits forming given the two-course rotation. Day one has winds starting in the 10-12mph range but they are expected to gain strength as the day goes on. Friday may play out the opposite, with a windy start and the gusts dying down in the afternoon. It’s too early to set this in stone but a Thursday AM start coupled with a late Friday tee time in Round 2 may be ideal. The weekend also has much less wind in the forecast so we may see a ton of low scores on Saturday and Sunday, making this a potentially great event to live bet.
Last 5 winners
2023–Ludvig Aberg -29 (Mackenzie Hughes -25)
2022—Adam Svensson -19 (over three players at -17)
2021—Talor Gooch -22 (over Mackenzie Hughes)
2020—Robert Streb -19 (over Kevin Kisner -18 playoff)
2019—Tyler Duncan -19 (over Webb Simpson playoff)
Winning Trends
- Seven of the last 14 winners had achieved a T7 or better result at either the RBC Heritage (Hilton Head) or the Sony Open (Waialae Country Club) at some point in their career before their win at The RSM.
- Five of the last eight winners had recorded a T6 or better in one of their last eight starts on the PGA TOUR before winning here.
- Four of the last five winners have been first-time winners on the PGA TOUR.
Winners Stats and Course Overview
2022 Winner: Ludvig Aberg (29-under-par)
(2022 lead-in: 10/13/2/64/MC)
SG: OTT— 4.9
SG: APP— 2.4
SG: TTG— 8.9
SG: ATG— 1.6
SG: PUTT— 6.4
**We only have three measured rounds at the Seaside course to go off for data
- Aberg came in piping hot to this event, having won in the fall over in Switzerland and getting chosen for one of the final two spots for the Ruder Cup on Team Europe.
- The Swede was gaining everywhere but was very sharp on the greens last fall and scrambled extremely well.
- In 2022, Adam Svennson had a decent week ball-striking but did gain most of his damage on the greens, gaining 9.2 strokes putting for the week
- In 2021, Talor Gooch had one of the more dominant wins we’ve seen at this event over the past decade. He gained multiple strokes on APP, ATG and PUTT, allowing him to cruise down the stretch to a three-shot win.
- In 2020, Robert Streb did most of his damage with his putter, and we have seen several winners get uber hot on these greens before, with 2016 winner Mackenzie Hughes gaining +6.2 strokes putting during the week of his win while actually losing strokes on his approach.
- Looking at putting percentages from 15 feet and out this week is something to consider, as we see a lot of putts made from longer distances at this event.
- Good approach play certainly sets a player up for success though, and in 2020, each of the top-9 finishers all gained strokes on approach for the week.
Finding Values (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value comparative to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Matt Kuchar +4500 and $7,600
Comparables:
Andrew Putnam +5500 and $7,400
Comparables:
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Denny McCarthy ($10,000; best finish: T5-2023, T8-2020): McCarthy is the prototypical great putter/iron player who tends to excel at these shorter courses. He’s coming off another solid season and while he hasn’t played much of late, Sea Island is a place he’s landed multiple top-10 finishes in the past, including last year when he finished T5.
2. Mackenzie Hughes ($8,800; best finish: 2nd-2023, T2-2021, win-2016): This was the site of Hughes’ first PGA win back in 2016. He gained an impressive 4.7 strokes ATG and 6.2 strokes putting that week to overcome a five-man playoff that included the likes of Camilo Villegas and Billy Horschel. He’s added two runner-up finishes since then making Sea Island like a second home for the Canadian.
3. Keith Mitchell ($7,900; best finish: T12-2022, T14-2020): Mitchell has shown good upside at this venue, posting made cuts in four of his last five appearances at Sea Island. He hasn’t blown the doors off at this event yet but his history suggests there is good upside lurking.
4. Kevin Kisner ($6,600; best finish: win-2015, 2nd-2021): Kisner won this event back in 2015, his first win on the PGA TOUR, and has finished T20 or better at this event/venue six times in his last eight visits —including a playoff loss in 2021. Kisner is a master of the shorter technical tracks and shouldn’t be overlooked, especially coming in off a surprise top-30 finish from last week.
5. Webb Simpson ($7,200; best finish: second-2019, second-2011, third-2018): Simpson has a long history of playing well at this event, stretching all the way back to 2010. He finished solo third here in 2018, lost in a playoff in 2020, and was T8 at this venue in 2021. The venue plays to his strengths so even with poor form, he is a candidate to surprise in this wide-open field.
Recent Form
1. Justin Lower ($7,700; T5-T2): Lower comes in off of two top-five finishes, and held the lead for much of the event last week. It’s hard to say how long this run by Lower will last but his price is still very affordable making him a solid target again.
2. Wes Bryan ($7,200; T17-T6): The former RBC Heritage winner has found some form of late, posting a T17 and a T6 over his last two starts. Overall, he’s now made five cuts in a row and comes to a very suitable setup similar to Harbour Town Golf Links, where he grabbed his first and only PGA win in 2017.
3. Andrew Novak ($8,100; 2nd-T16): Novak played well last week, but had to settle for second place to eventual Bermuda winner Raphael Campos. Novak’s putter is always a question mark but his irons have been gaining him strokes nearly every week this fall.
4. Ben Griffin ($9,300; T8-T15): Griffin followed up finishes of T22 and T24 with a T8 in Bermuda. He’s playing solid golf but doesn’t quite have the upside of those around him in salary this week. For cash games, he’s a fine target but likely someone to pivot off in GPPs.
5. Maverick McNealy ($9,100; T17-T6): McNealy is playing well heading into the final event of the year. He’s finished top 20 in each of his last three starts and is starting to find more consistency with his ball-striking. He is still priced up given the stronger field this week but his ownership may not be very high as a result.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
Cash Games: Si Woo and Power a nice combo
Si Woo Kim ($9,600) hasn’t been active most of the fall, playing in just one PGA TOUR event and one event over in Europe. Still, his lone start over in Japan at the Zozo produced a solid T6 finish and he comes into this week’s event searching for his first win on the PGA since the 2023 Sony Open. Kim is a coastal specialist who knows how to put up birdies on these shorter courses, having already grabbed wins at TPC Sawgrass, Waialae in Hawaii, and Sedgefield CC. His best finish at this week’s event remains a T18 from back in 2015 but he’s likely to find his groove at this course soon and makes for too good a value to ignore in core lineup builds this week. Behind him, Seamus Power ($9,200) is another coastal specialist who booked a win in Bermuda two seasons ago and comes in having finished T13 or better in four of his last six starts. The Irishman also has two top-five finishes at this venue through four career appearances making him a solid core target in his own right.
Tournaments: Davis Thompson could deliver
Thompson ($10,400) comes in with the second-highest salary on DraftKings this week. The 25-year-old is a talent and already has a win this season at the John Deere, another event where you have to keep your pedal down the entire way or risk getting left behind. Most DFS lineup builders will likely simply choose to pay up for Aberg this week, who has been off from competitive golf since the Tour Championship in August. Thompson looks like a solid pivot and player with massive upside in an event like this. Further down, Sepp Straka ($7,900) is another name to potentially consider for GPPs. He’s not played on the PGA since the playoffs but likes short coastal courses and his pedigree alone makes him a good value at under 8k. Other names to consider this week include Michael Kim ($7,400), Bud Cauley ($7,100 – see below), and Justin Suh ($6,900).
MY PICK: Eric Cole ($8,700)
Eric Cole was my pick at this event last season (he finished T3) and will be my pick again in 2024. If not for a legendary performance by one of the best young players in the game Cole may have very easily snuck in his first win at this venue last year, and with Aberg coming in with far less prep this season, Cole’s chances at making a run seem solid again this season.
The 36-year-old is the prototypical sort of player who has success at Sea Island yearly. He’s a fantastic short-iron player who comes in ranked 7th in approach proximity and can sink putts from range. While his putting stats can wax and wane a little the veteran comes in ranked a solid 33rd in SG: Putting from 10-15 feet and 20th on putts from 25+ feet. He also gained 6.3 strokes putting on the greens at Sea Island last season.
Cole’s been off since the Zozo Championship, but his T6 finish in Japan and his T16 finish at the Sanderson Farms in October, where he gained 10.0 strokes on approach, showcase a player whose game looks ready to attack this open course where the birdie opportunities are aplenty. I like Cole as an outright play at +3000 or better on the DraftKings Sportsbook this week and for DFS, at under 9k in price, he makes sense as a core player to build lineups around for all formats.
MY SLEEPER: Bud Cauley ($7,100)
Cauley would be a GPP-only play for me but the American has upside at this week’s venue. On top of finishing T8 at Sea Island back in 2017, Cauley has just generally had his best finishes at these shorter, more technical venues where short iron play and short games reign supreme. He’s posted T3 finishes at both Sedgefield Country Club and TPC Stadium (x2) over his career and has top 10s at Hilton Head, TPC Summerlin, and TPC Deere Run.
Cauley also comes in having flashed some decent form already this fall. His T5 at the Sanderson Farms back in October saw him post a stat line where he gained 2.0+ strokes against the field in every single major category, including approach play and putting. He also gained 6.0 strokes ball-striking in his last start at the Shriners in November, where he finished T34.
With his price back well below $7,500, he makes for an ideal cheap GPP target for me this week, on a course where veterans and great short-iron players often outperform. Additionally, I’d have no issue laddering Cauley through the top 20 (+300) and top 10 (+700) placing markets this week for betting. His upside on these sorts of venues aside, his play of late suggests he’s ready to start putting together a few more of those top finishes we saw at the Sanderson Farms soon, and with his odds still available at huge prices it makes sense to take a shot with him in this final event of 2024.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $200K Sand Trap [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
