Monday Night Football for Week 11 is filled with marquee names for both fantasy leagues and prop markets. Nico Collins is back and healthy; Ceedee Lamb’s injury concerns seem to be a thing of the past; Joe Mixon is one of the best backs in the league. Perhaps tucked underneath those big-lights names is a sneakier one whose prop market I like: Tank Dell.
Below is the Dell prop I like the most for tonight.
Best Tank Dell prop for Texans vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football
Tank Dell Longest Reception o21.5 yards (-105)
In his short career so far, Tank Dell has caught 82 passes from C.J. Stroud. Of those 82, 14 have gone for longer than 21 yards (the line here on DraftKings Sportsbook). That’s good for 17% across his career.
Those numbers, however, are a bit skewed by a lackluster 2024. Dell had a 21.3% 21+-yard-catch rate in his rookie season (10 of 47 total receptions). His 11.4% rate this season is certainly due to C.J. Stroud having less time in the pocket behind a patchwork offensive line. No doubt, also, Stefon Diggs’s presence in the early part of the season, when Dell was banged up anyways, absorbed some opportunity.
Fear not. Dell’s yards per route run figure (2.4) is the same in 2024 as it was in 2023. The pass-catching room is a lot more similar to 2023, too, with Nico Collins back and healthy, and Diggs out for the season.
Bottom Line
The Cowboys defense, through ten weeks, has allowed 27 explosive plays (defined as plays of 20+ yards). Tank Dell is due for positive explosive regression.
Given that this defense has been allowing about three explosive plays per game, I’m going to say they allow closer to five tonight. At least one of them will be airmail stamped from Stroud to Dell.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
