The Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans are set to face off to conclude the Week 11 NFL slate. While the cross-state rivalry has lost a bit of its luster due to Dak Prescott being injured, this is a great chance for the Texans to pick up a victory. Houston will be on the positive side of the injury news as Nico Collins will be returning to the field after a five-week absence due to a hamstring injury.
The Texans enter this game as 7.5-point favorites and -375 on the moneyline. The Cowboys are considered +295 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 41 points.
Nico Collins Prop Bets
DraftKings Sportsbook has Nico Collins’ props set at o/u 5.5 receptions and o/u 74.5 receiving yards, while he has +120 odds of an anytime touchdown.
Nico Collins was off to an incredible start to the season before he suffered a hamstring injury. Through the opening five weeks, he was leading the NFL in receiving yards with 567 yards through the air and three touchdowns. He has missed the past five weeks, but he is set to return tonight and will have no form of snap restriction.
Collins has averaged an NFL-best 113.4 yards per game this season and has gone over the 74.5 receiving yards in all five games that he played. While these numbers jump off the page, this should be viewed as an outlier. Collins recorded 1,297 receiving yards last season and had over 74.5 receiving yards in eight of the 15 games.
While the Texans entered the season with one of the strongest wide receiver groups in the league, injuries have taken a toll. Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs have each missed time due to injury, with Diggs being ruled out for the season with an ACL tear. While Houston has survived without Collins, it will need his abilities for the offense to return to form.
This is also a great matchup for Collins and the Texans. The Cowboys rank 31st in scoring defense this season and 27th in yards allowed. Their passing defense has been better than their ability to stop the run, but Dallas ranks 15th in passing yards allowed, 23rd in passing touchdowns given up and 31st in net yards per pass attempt.
Expect the Texans to make a conscious effort to get Collins back in the flow of the offense and for the star receiver to make the impact he is capable of. He was targeted eight or more times in each of the games he was fully healthy this season and saw as many as 15 targets in a game this season. With a struggling defense and the Texans searching to fully reach their peak as a team, Collins has a clear path to being heavily involved.
Collins has scored a touchdown in three of the five games he has played this season and tallied eight receiving touchdowns last season. He will be their top target once again tonight and there is no better way to get him back in stride than giving him an opportunity (or a few) at a touchdown. Dallas does not have the quality of defense to stop Collins or the Texans as a whole and I think he finds paydirt tonight.
The Pick: Nico Collins Anytime TD (+125)
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