The game of the weekend for NFL Week 11 is undoubtably the Chiefs at the Bills. There’s plenty of history in this rivalry, and of course, despite Kansas City entering Sunday undefeated, the Bills are the home favorites in this game. You’ll hear plenty about Patrick Mahomes behing 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, but I actually lean Bills in this one. That said, I’m expecting a great game, and believe the Chiefs make for a strong teaser leg.
Regardless of who wins this one, I’m expecting a big day from Dawson Knox. Let’s breakdown why.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Both the matchup and the injury report dictate that we should see Knox heavily involved in this game. The Bills have been using two tight ends all season, with Dalton Kincaid operating as TE1. Knox has been on the field plenty, but not utilized much in the passing game. That changed a bit last week, when Kincaid went down with an injury that’ll keep him out this week.
Last week at Indy, Knox caught 2-of-3 targets for 40 yards, going over his receiving prop for the second time in three weeks. Now, for the first time this season, Knox will get all the reps as the TE1 in Buffalo’s offense. Aside from being down Kincaid, the Bills will also be missing Keon Coleman on the outside, and Amari Cooper is a true game-time decision. Even if Cooper does play, expect him to be limited.
That means Knox should be in for his largest workload of the season, and it comes against the worst team in the NFL at defending the TE position. The Chiefs allow over 77 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season, constantly getting torched by the position. At a very modest number, and without much competition for targets, I’ll back Knox to go over his receiving yards. This is a good one to consider laddering up to higher numbers.
PLAY: Dawson Knox OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 2-units
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