A fun Week 11 comes to a close on Monday Night Football with a Texas-sized rivalry. The Texans will head across the Lone Star State to duel the banged-up Cowboys in Dallas. With Dak Prescott (hamstring) out and CeeDee Lamb ($10,800 in Showdown) questionable with a back injury, the Cowboys’ offense is extremely hard to trust. On the other side of the matchup, the Texans are getting healthy with Nico Collins ($10,400) back from IR, but their go-to all season has been Joe Mixon ($16,500 as Captain’s Pick), who is in a smash spot this Monday in single-game Showdown contests, highlighted by the NFL Showdown $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (HOU @ DAL). Mixon could be chalky as the highest-priced player on the slate, so I’ve also included some pivot options and good values to make Mixon’s hefty salary work.
Here’s why Mixon makes sense:
Joe Mixon’s huge upside and high floor
Mixon has been the focus of Houston’s offense since returning from an ankle injury. He started his first season in Houston with 29.8 fantasy points against the Colts in Week 1, but then he had to leave Week 2 against the Bears and missed Week 3 through Week 5.
He returned with 30.2 fantasy points in Week 6 and has had at least 24 carries in each of his four games since then with over 17 fantasy points in each game.
In his seven games, Mixon has scored eight touchdowns while averaging 93.6 rushing yards and 22.7 receiving yards per game. That includes the contest where he left early.
He gets a delicious matchup vs. the Cowboys this week. Dallas has given up 11 running back touchdowns in its nine games along with 111.1 rushing yards and 39.2 receiving yards per game. It ranks fifth in most points allowed to running backs this season.
He has carried such a heavy workload that he’s low-risk in this matchup. He has already shown his extremely high ceiling as well with over 29 fantasy points in three games this season.
How to differentiate your lineup
Since he is the most expensive Captain’s Pick, Joe Mixon will likely get plenty of attention on Monday night in this smash spot. So who can you target to make your DFS lineup stand out and finish ahead of your competition? Here are my top options to consider as FLEX plays to make your lineup different.
- Texans DST ($6,200): The Texans had five picks in last week’s loss to the Lions and totaled 10 fantasy points. They have at least nine fantasy points in four of their last five games and get a great matchup vs. Cooper Rush ($8,000).
- Rico Dowdle ($9,000): Dowdle has stood out as the best option in the Cowboys’ committee this season, and this week head coach Mike McCarthy said he is officially the lead back. Dowdle had 21.7 fantasy points two weeks ago against the Falcons while Ezekiel Elliott ($2,600) was out. The offense could hold him back, but he is probably the Cowboys’ best fantasy option since he can be the focus of the offense.
- Dalton Schultz ($5,000): Schultz is in a potential revenge matchup against the Cowboys. Even with Collins back in the mix, Schultz should still get enough looks to make an impact. He has at least three catches in six of his last seven games but does not have a touchdown yet.
- Cade Stover ($1,600): If you really want to go cheap, Stover makes sense as a flier play since he has seven targets over the last three weeks from his former college teammate C.J. Stroud ($9,800). Stover is solidly behind Schultz on the TE depth chart but still gets some work each week.
- Jonathan Mingo ($3,200): Mingo is a total wild card this week. He is expected to make his Cowboys debut, and even if the Cowboys did overpay to get him, they’ll want to show he can be a part of their offense. He could be a total bust, but he has more upside than many of the similarly priced options.
The Bottom Line
Joe Mixon’s matchup is too good to pass up on Monday night. He should be able to produce good value even as a pay-up option, and there are ways to differentiate your lineup in the flex spots.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
