The Texans are in firm control of the AFC South, while the Cowboys are amid a tailspin. They can’t even get the curtains closed for their home games. Now, the Texans, needing a win, will head to Dallas to try and snap a two-game losing streak. Let’s look into the lineup strategy I’m looking to use for this Texans-Cowboys Showdown slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (HOU @ DAL)
Captain’s Picks
Joe Mixon ($16,500 CP): It’s tough not to use Mixon in your Captain spot. The Texans are -7 favorites and facing a Cowboys run defense that continues to struggle. On the season, they’re allowed 4.7 YPC (T-9th), 38 explosive runs (T-7th), and 15 rushing touchdowns (3rd). Mixon has been fantastic when carrying the ball and has 19 explosive runs of his own while averaging over 3.1 yards after contact. Even during this two-game losing streak the Texans are on, he’s carried the ball no less than 24 times. Now, maybe some of those opportunities scale back with the return of Dameon Pierce, but this positive game script will help Mixon’s case. He’s going to be a very popular Captain pick but he’s one of the safest. In a tournament, you can make a case to use someone else but he’s a cash game must.
FLEX Plays
Jake Ferguson ($5,800): Ferguson will help you retain some salary after paying up for Mixon. He’s one of the cheaper Cowboys receivers and the one I’ll trust the most. Last week was a disappointing outing for him as the Eagles trampled the Cowboys. Even in a 34-6 loss, he caught four of his five targets for 24 yards and 5.4 DKFP. The Texans haven’t faced much from opposing tight ends, as the 51 targets they’ve received is the third-fewest in the league. On the 27 catches they’ve made, they’ve averaged over nine yards. Ferguson is reasonably priced for the high likelihood that he’ll be one of the top targets in this game. With Mixon at Captain and Ferguson in the FLEX, you still have an average of under $7,000 for the rest of your lineup.
Nico Collins ($10,400): Collins finally returns to the Texans lineup after being injured in Week 5 against the Bills. It’ll be a very welcoming addition to the Texans offense, as CJ Stroud’s passer rating is 27 points higher with Collins in the lineup. In the four games he played fully, Collins averaged 10.7 targets and 25 DKFP. I don’t expect Collins to be limited in this game, either. He had a chance to play last week, but the Texans decided to make him inactive for one more week. He hasn’t had any setbacks and should see his full complement of snaps in this game. He’ll have plus matchups in coverage against CB Trevon Diggs and Caelen Carson. Carlson, specifically, has allowed a massive 15.1 YPR on 23 catches.
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Ka’imi Fairbairn ($5,400): There is not a ton of value that’ll make you feel confident. Fairbairn is who I’ll be looking toward to save some salary. He’s averaging just under 12 DKFP per game and likely will have plenty of opportunities. The Texans have one of the highest attempted field goal attempts per game, averaging just under three per game. At that rate, it’s tied for the second-highest in the league. Fairbairn is also a perfect 20/20 on XPA and has taken more 50+ FG attempts than any other kicker. He’s well worth the $5,400 salary.
Fades
CeeDee Lamb ($10,800): I’ll let others pay nearly $11K in salary for Lamb this week. Last week with Cooper Rush/Trey Lance, Lamb made six catches on 10 targets for 21 yards and 8.4 DKFP. Rush was abysmal last week, and this matchup isn’t going to do him any favors, either. Lamb is going to see a lot of CB Jalen Pitre, whom the Lions steered clear of the last time the Texans played. They only threw toward Pitre once in that game. Lamb at $10,800 is a tough sell for me when catching passes from Cooper Rush.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (HOU @ DAL)
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