UFC 309 is taking place on Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York City, and the card features a heavyweight title fight between two of the greatest fighters in UFC history: Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. It’s possible that this will be the last time we see Jones inside the octagon, as Jones has hinted at retirement. The co-main event is a rematch between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler, and the winner could move into the title picture at lightweight. Rising middleweight Bo Nickal is also back in action as a heavy favorite against Paul Craig.
A DraftKings Sportsbook bettor cashed in during Jones’ last fight and recorded one of the most epic betting wins in recent memory, turning just $1 into nearly $400,000 with a $1 UFC Parlay Bet featuring the following six UFC 285 picks:
- Dricus Du Plessis to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2
- Cody Garbrandt To Win By Decision
- Bo Nickal to Win by Submission in Round 1
- Shavkat Rakhmonov to Win by Submission in Round 3
- Alexa Grasso to Win by Submission in Round 4
- Jon Jones To Win By Submission
As a result of all of these outcomes hitting in the Parlay Bet, the UFC bettor took home $399,472.71.
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UFC 309 Picks
Bo Nickal To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Nickal is one of the most talented up-and-coming UFC fighters and has the skills to emerge as a future UFC champion. As a three-time NCAA Division I National Champion wrestler, Nickal has one of the best wrestling backgrounds in all of MMA. Nickal is also more than an elite wrestler—his striking has looked explosive. Nickal stands southpaw and showcases big power in his hands, which was best on display in his win over Val Woodburn. In that fight, Nickal feinted takedown attempts to get Woodburn to think about defending the takedown, and Nickal then landed several explosive punches past Woodburn’s guard to win the fight by KO/TKO. Nickal used the threat of his elite wrestling to gain cleaner striking entries, showcasing high fight IQ.
A similar theme could be in play for Nickal’s fight against Paul Craig. Craig is a very good grappler and is a submission threat, so Nickal might ultimately want to keep this fight standing and turn it into a distance-striking match. 13 of Craig’s 17 career wins are by submission, and his most notable submission win was over top light heavyweight contender Magomed Ankalaev, where Craig threw up a triangle choke off his back with time running out in the third round to get the tap and deliver Ankalaev his only career loss.
Craig is also not a great distance striker. Craig has absorbed more strikes than he has landed, which is a red flag in his striking metrics. Craig’s striking defense on a rate basis is poor, avoiding only 44% of opponent significant strike attempts. In addition, five of Craig’s eight career losses are by KO/TKO, including his most recent fight against Caio Borralho where Craig was knocked out by a combination that ended with a power left straight from a southpaw stance, which is notable given Nickal also stands southpaw and also has huge power in his left hand.
Charles Oliveira To Win and Under 3.5 Total Rounds (-144)
Oliveira has only lost two fights since 2017, going 12-2 with 11 finishes over that stretch. The only fighters to beat Oliveira during that span were Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, who are currently the two best fighters in the division.
Oliveira holds the record for most finishes in UFC history with 20 and has finished about 90% of his UFC wins. Oliveira also holds the record for most wins via submission in UFC history with 16. Oliveira is an excellent jiu-jitsu black belt and uses his jiu-jitsu for potent offense, actively hunting submissions during his fights, even when he has his opponent hurt from strikes. Oliveira’s dangerous bottom game generally makes opponents hesitant to take the fight to the ground, which can give Oliveira margin for error when clipped with a strike, as some opponents allow Oliveira to stand back up, which gives Oliveira time to recover. Oliveira has also developed very good striking, most notably showcasing his striking progression in his wins over Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler and Beneil Dariush.
Oliveira has a rematch against Chandler at UFC 309. In their first fight, Chandler had strong moments, dropping Oliveira in the first round and threatening a stoppage. However, Oliveira connected with a sharp left hook in Round 2 to set off a finishing combination and win the fight by KO/TKO. Chandler does not have the hardest chin in the world and has been rocked by strikes in several of his fights. Chandler has also not fought in two years due to waiting for a fight with Conor McGregor which never ended up happening, so ring rust could be an issue.
Jon Jones To Win and Over 1.5 Total Rounds (-105)
Jones is arguably the greatest UFC fighter ever, but even at his physical peak, he generally did not finish his opponents early in the fight. 14 of Jones’ 16 UFC title fights have gone over 1.5 rounds. Jones’ only first-round finish in the last decade was in his most recent fight vs. Ciryl Gane. Jones took advantage of Gane’s grappling deficiency to quickly get the fight to the ground and sink in a guillotine choke. Stipe Miocic is more well-rounded than Gane and Miocic should be able to survive long enough to get past 1.5 rounds before ultimately falling short to the superior Jones.
Main Card Parlay Bet
- Bo Nickal To Win
- Charles Oliveira To Win
- Jon Jones To Win
Parlay Odds: -128
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
