Week 11 is here, and that means there are a ton of prop bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for this weekend’s action. Below are some of my favorites for the Week 11 slate.
OVER Picks
RB Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Joe Mixon has hit the over on this total in five of the seven games he’s played this year, and I like him to do it again on Monday night in Dallas. This is a great matchup for the Houston running game, as the Cowboys are the second-worst defense in the league at stopping the run. Only the Carolina Panthers have given up more rush yards per game this season.
Mixon has turned back the clock so far in 2024, and his 4.3 yards per carry this year is only second to his sophomore campaign in 2018. Mixon has also been a touchdown machine this year and has scored in six of seven starts this season. I like Houston to go into Dallas and win comfortably, and I think the running game with Mixon will be a massive reason why they come out of Jerry World victorious.
WR George Pickens Over 69.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Russell Wilson has been a breath of fresh air in Pittsburgh, and arguably nobody has benefitted more from him starting than George Pickens. In the three games since Wilson took over the starting job, Pickens has hit this total in all three games. Three games is still a relatively small sample size, but Pickens is averaging 4.6 catches for 92 yards over that span. He has also sprinkled in two touchdown grabs.
Not only does Pickens have the recent form to feel good about this bet, but he has a great matchup as well. The Steelers face the Ravens this weekend, and Baltimore has the worst passing defense in the league. The Ravens give up 294.9 pass yards per game, so Wilson and Pickens should be licking their chops for Sunday.
WR Jameson Williams Over 44.5 Rec Yds (-115)
This total seems way too low for Williams, as he has gone over this number in five of seven games so far this season. He is a threat to take the top off the defense on any given play, and his 20.7 yards per reception is good enough for third in the NFL.
The Lions receiver has a great matchup on Sunday, facing a Jaguars secondary that gives up the third most pass yards per game. Jacksonville allows 261.2 pass yards per game, so Jared Goff and company should definitely be able to air the ball out. Williams just needs a couple of catches to get over this low total, and I think he will do just that.
UNDER Picks
WR D.J. Moore Under 45.5 Rec Yds (-110)
It’s been a tough couple of weeks for D.J. Moore, to say the least. He has not hit the over on this total since Week 5 when he caught five passes for 105 yards and two scores. Since then, it’s been all downhill. In the four games since, he is averaging 26 yards per game and has not scored a touchdown. Moore is averaging six targets per game over that span, so his lack of production isn’t from a lack of trying.
He has a decent matchup this week, as the Packers rank middle of the pack against the pass (no pun intended). Regardless of the matchup, Williams and Moore are going to have to start producing. Until then, I will be taking the under in this spot.
QB Gardner Minshew Under 196.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Minshew has been in and out of the Raiders lineup all season. It’s safe to say their quarterback of the future is probably not in the building, but someone has to finish the season under center. Enter Minshew. He has gone under this total in four of his eight starts this year, but now he has a top-10 pass defense in his way.
The Raiders are traveling to Miami, who ranks eighth in the league against the pass. The Dolphins only allow 191.3 pass yards per game, which means an average game from their defense would keep Minshew under his total. I think the Dolphins win this one comfortably, and in the process, I think Minshew will struggle through the air.
QB Cooper Rush Under 183.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Cooper Rush started his first game for the Cowboys in 2024 last week against the Eagles, and it couldn’t have gone worse. Rush was 13-of-23 for 45 yards before getting benched for Trey Lance as the Cowboys lost by four touchdowns. Rush will get the start again this weekend, but it won’t get any easier against the Texans. Both Philadelphia and Houston are top-five against the pass, so Rush should be in for another tough night.
This total seems like a stretch to me, as the Texans only allow 174.7 yards per game in the air. I don’t see Rush sniffing this total on Monday night, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he got pulled for Lance once again.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
