The Bills ruled out Dalton Kincaid (knee) for their Week 11 matchup with the Chiefs, which opens a huge opportunity for Dawson Knox ($3,500) to step up in the showcase game of the weekend as his Bills host the Chiefs.
The way we got here
Kincaid has averaged 8.2 fantasy points per game this season while catching a total of 34 passes for 356 yards and two touchdowns in his 10 games. He averages a solid 5.9 targets per contest, though, which will make a large workload available for Knox.
Last week, Kincaid was forced to leave the game against the Colts. Although he did return briefly, he wasn’t able to practice this week and has been ruled out vs. the Chiefs.
Coach McDermott has ruled TE Dalton Kincaid out for Sunday’s game.#KCvsBUF injury report: https://t.co/XMAsEmQeZa pic.twitter.com/zf0vAB4BE2
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 15, 2024
Kincaid will join rookie receiver Keon Coleman (wrist) on the sideline, but Amari Cooper ($5,700) is expected to be back in the mix after missing the last two games.
Why Dawson Knox matters
With the increased volume, Knox should be in a smash start spot against the Chiefs. Kansas City gives up the most yards per game to tight ends this season and the most fantasy points per game to the position as well. Opposing tight ends have totaled 22 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs in just the last three games, and one of those was against the Broncos, who don’t have a clear go-to at the position.
Knox played 70% of snaps last week against the Colts and finished with two catches on three targets for 40 yards. He also had a 50-yard game against the Seahawks in Week 8 and found the end zone in Week 6.
He has a solid connection with Josh Allen ($7,800) dating back to before Kincaid was drafted and should be heavily involved in this favorable matchup in Week 11.
The Bottom Line
Knox is available in over 90% of season-long fantasy leagues and is an instant add-and-start option this week. He moves into the fringes of the top 10 at the position for this week and should stay there as long as Kincaid is sidelined. It is worth noting that the Bills have their bye in Week 12, so Kincaid may be able to recover by their next game after Sunday’s.
In DFS, Knox is an amazing value at only $3,500 in the NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] and other contests this week. He brings both a high ceiling and a high floor if you opt to go cheap at tight end or in a flex spot.
The Bills are two-point home favorites against the undefeated Chiefs and Knox is an attractive value at +220 to find the end zone.
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