Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
The best overall QB edge on the slate goes to Brock Purdy ($6,600) and it’s not really close. His projected ownership is just 8%, while his win rate in the simulations is about 34%, giving him an edge of +26.35%. The next two big positive numbers go to Jameis Winston ($5,500) and Bo Nix ($6,200). Both of these QBs come in at around a +16% edge and can be used in both single (QB+1) and double (QB+2) stack formations.
The key this week is spending down at QB (and WR) in order to afford the RB options. The contest sims have keyed in on that and are showing us that no QB above Purdy in price is a positive-EV play based on the exposures in winning simulations.
RB Edge Distributions
Above are the top 5 options are RB in terms of positive edge offered.
The two highest edges here going to Alvin Kamara ($8,200) and Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,100). They have edges offered of +15.53% and +14.24%, respectively, thanks to different reasoning. Kamara has his edge thanks to a very high exposure rate in winning lineup from the sims of 33.20%, which is nearly double his projected ownership of 17.67%. Stevenson, on the other hand, has a middling exposure rate to winning lineups, but is projected at just 4% ownership, giving him an edge of nearly 3x what the field values him at.
The next two big positive edges are for Aaron Jones ($6,900) and Kenneth Walker III ($7,200). Both come in with an offered edge of around +10% thanks to lower projected ownership and decent exposure rates.
The thing that ties all these guys together is a realtively high price, and the contest sims believe that you should be spending your salary allocation at RB where possible.
WR Edge Distributions
The highest overall edge in the contest sims at WR is Devaughn Vele ($3,900), but I think all of these numbers come with a caveat that we have seen before. We are seeing cheap WRs who can be paired with the QBs from the top of the contest sims being forced. Guys like Vele, Kayshon Boutte ($3,500), and Elijah Moore ($4,300) are all good, cheap options that have good edges associated. That said, when you look at their medians, they are typically lower than WRs in the midrange that have legit ceilings. It’s a difficult tradeoff this week that speaks to using more QB+1 stacks than QB+2, which I’ll explain more of in the overall thoughts.
There are two WRs projected priced $7,500+ this week that carry heavy negative edge numbers in the contest sims. You’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see who you should fade on the high end!
TE Edge Distributions
Above are all the TEs on the slate that currently have an edge that is positive.
As mentioned with the QBs, you are likely wanting to pay down at TE and make sure that you have money to dedicate to quality RBs. The contest sims are telling us this with just two TEs above $4,000 offering any positive edge at all (both on the lower end) and forcing value at us everywhere else. Jonnu Smith ($3,800) is the highest positive edge at the position with an exposure rate of 19.30%, leading to an edge of +12.66%. He has a strong median and a good matchup to exploit as well, so even as a one-off he is going to make plenty of sense.
The other main names here are Dawson Knox ($3,500) and Brock Wright ($3,300) who are both seeing an increased role due to injuries. We should expect to see both of their projected ownership numbers increase before lock on Sunday, but with exposure rates of 13.90% and 7.50%, both more than double current projections, they have some room to breath before they are overvalued.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
These weeks are tough. There is hardly any real, strong value to utilize at RB or WR, so that burden is being forced down to the QB/TE positions. the contest sims are acknowledging that but is still feels pretty gross to go into the week thinking “This Nix + Vele stack is going to win me a GPP!”. However, when there are a lot of gross options like that it represents a nice opportunity to take the less traveled path than the rest of the field.
For instance, because of the lack of value, people are jamming in Kayshon Boutte from New England. He has had just one game this year with 10+ PPR points but is staring down the barrel of 15% ownership in large fields. Which the contest sims agree that he is a fine play overall, it’s easy enough to say “I would rather eat gross value from Vele,” who should come in at half the ownership with a similarly bleak expectation.
The other main point I want to make based on the sims: You should be using more QB+1 stacks than QB+2 this week. The added benefit of correlation is lesser when there is less value to make it work, so making sure to focus more on raw medians than correlations is going to build better lineups. Contest sims agree with this and gave us a lot less QB+2 stacks than the QB+1.
However you cut it, the contest sims at Paydirt have a lot of interesting fades as well that can give you relative value on the field without ever considering positive value at all. You’ll want to check those out!
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.