GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 11.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Raiders at Dolphins
Gardner Minshew ($5,000) – Brock Bowers ($5,500) – De’Von Achane ($7,200)
I’m keeping the game stack pretty simple this week and going after a couple of stud skill players in great matchups.
De’Von Achane may be coming off a slow week against the Rams but his usage has been RB1 worthy of late. The second-year running back has gone for 23+ DKFP in four of five games with Tua Tagovailoa under center this season and leads the Dolphins with a 29.3% first target share. From a PPR standpoint alone, Achane is averaging 17.66 points per game in full PPR scoring, just as a receiver, over his last three starts.
What’s impressive about Achane, and why he’s in such a good spot this week, is that he not only gets heavy targeting, but he’s also likely to get most of the short yardage work around the goal line as well. Raheem Mostert received zero carries last week against the Rams, and Achane took all of the team’s I5 (inside the five) carries in Week 9. The Raiders are also a terrific matchup as they’re not a good rush defense (20th in EPA per rush) to begin with and are terrible at defending RBs who can catch out of the backfield. For the season the Raiders have allowed a 93% completion rate (45 catches on 48 targets) to opposing RBs and three receiving TDs to the position.
If Achane does reach his ceiling here, that should also push another stud in Brock Bowers into a fantastic game script where he may approach 10-12 targets again. The TE has had a couple of slower games volume-wise since Jakobi Meyers returned, but this game makes sense for us to see a Bowers spike. The Dolphins deploy a lot of cover-three defense which leaves shorter passes open in the middle of the field where Bowers tends to dwell. Given his open-field running ability (he leads all TEs in YAC) and the potential for a positive game script, there is all the potential in the world for him to replicate the 9-catch, 124-yard game Trey McBride posted against Miami in Week 8.
If we want to get maximum value from our stack then finishing things off with Raiders QB Garnder Minshew does make sense, even though it is risky. Minshew has already been pulled in-game twice this season, but at $5,000 his price is also a huge benefit that will allow you to stack more studs throughout your lineup. If you’re nervous about Minshew, then using Tua Tagovailoa ($6,000) with Achane, and potentially adding in TE Jonnu Smith ($3,800) as a cheap flex play, has some appeal as well. Either way, I expect the bulk of points to come from Bowers and Achane in this matchup, so any additions to them should be cost-effective plays that leave room for more big names elsewhere.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($5,900)
Wilson being under $6,000 this week almost seems too good to be true. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and Wilson comes in averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game since taking over as starter. Wilson has done this despite not having great matchups either. The Jets are still a tougher matchup for opposing QBs and the Commanders have improved as a defense vastly since their first few games.
Add in the fact that the Steelers gave Wilson another big body to throw downfield to in Mike Williams and you can easily see how a 2+ TD game can transpire in this spot. Overall, the Ravens’ offense puts so much pressure on opposing defenses that any offense with a decent set of receivers and a competent QB will get a bump. With Wilson playing well and having both Williams and near peerless George Pickens at his disposal, it won’t be shocking if he outperforms again and returns upwards of 4x value.
Running Back
Higher End: Jonathan Taylor ($7,600)
Taylor nearly had a monster week against the Bills. He averaged 5.4 yards per rush, and accumulated 114 yards on the ground, but couldn’t convert any of his short-yardage opportunities into a TD. That should change this week. Taylor has been a far more productive player with Anthony Richardson under center, having scored TDs this season in four of the five games that he and Richardson have started together. Further, he’s also had more explosive plays as a receiver with Richardson under center, going for 20+ yards receiving in three of those five games.
Maybe this is all a coincidence, but the idea of teams having trouble overcommitting to Taylor, while also having to account for the rushing threat that is Richardson, does make sense. Add in a Jets rush defense that has allowed at least one rushing TD to an opposing RB in four straight games and is 27th in success rate per rush, and you have the makings for a monster game by Taylor in Week 11.
Lower End: Audric Estime ($4,500)
I expect Estime to be a popular paydown option this week, so take note that you’re unlikely to get him at supremely low ownership. Still, if you do need or want to build around a sub-5k RB this week, he stands out as the most viable play. Estime seems likely to get the first crack at early down work in Week 11 for the Broncos after he managed 53 yards on 14 carries in Week 11, a stat line that was good enough to reduce Javonte Williams’ workload to just a single carry.
Atlanta hasn’t allowed a ton of rushing TDs this season but they’re not exactly a prime run-stopping unit either. The Falcons rank 28th in success rate per rush on defense and have allowed 4.8 yards per carry over their last three games, the sixth-worst mark in the league. If Estime gets going early there is a chance he approaches 15-20 carries and finds the endzone, which would make him a must-play given his $4,500 salary.
Wide Receiver
Higher End: Jameson Williams ($5,800)
Williams is in a great spot in Week 11. He’s averaged 19.33 DKFP in three home games this season and plays a Jacksonville defense that is 28th in success rate against the pass and has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs. Overall, Williams has now gone for 50+ yards in five of seven games and has averaged a stout 93.33 yards in his three home starts, so while he does still have a low floor, his ceiling is up there with some of the best WRs in fantasy.
There are gamescript concerns given that the Jaguars are starting Mac Jones and will have a hard time keeping this game competitive but
after they threw five INTs vs the Texans, it’s also not hard to figure that the Lions use this matchup as a way to get their passing game back on track. Call him boom or bust, or a tournament-only play, the upside this week with Wiliams remains off the chart. At under $6,000, if you’re looking to build around expensive RBs this week, Williams is a player you should be targeting to boost your upside at WR upside.
Lower End: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,600)
Westbrook-Ikhine has been a sneaky good punt play of late, He caught a TD in four straight games between Weeks 6-9 and has now played on over 90% of the snaps for the Titans in three straight games (after they traded away DeAndre Hopkins).
Westbrook-Ikhine isn’t going to blow people away with his athleticism (he ran a 4.57 40M out of college) but he’s got good size at 6’3+ and is a a player who has shown great body on downfield passes thrown his way and the ability to play the slot and outside. The matchup with the Vikings is also a potential boost as he’s likely to match up with an undersized corner in Shaq Griffin and will be up against a secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to his position.
With Will Levis also coming off his best game of the season against the Chargers (78% completion rate and 2 TDs) there is more upside with Westbrook-Ikhine than meets the eye this week making him a great tournament target once again at under $4,000.
Tight End
Dawson Knox ($3,500)
I mentioned Brock Bowers’ upside this week above, and while he’s my preferred choice at TE this week, if you do need a cheaper option the TE situation in Buffalo is well worth watching. As of writing it appears like Dalton Kincaid will be very hard-pressed to suit up this week after suffering a knee injury last week and missing practice on Thursday. That would leave Dawson Knox as the prime pass-catching TE for Buffalo, against a Chiefs team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season.
Knox hasn’t caught more than two passes in a single game this season but he has a solid history with Allen and against KC. He had his best game of the season last year against the Chiefs, landing three catches for 36 yards on three targets and went off for 117 yards and a TD vs them in 2021, in a game where he caught just three passes. Given the injury issues the Bills are dealing with, Knox could be a pivotal player for the Bills this week and deserves a look as a cheap TE punt if Kincaid sits
Defense/Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts ($2,600)
The Colts defense has been a solid earner for fantasy purposes the last few weeks. They’ve produced at least one turnover in all but one game this season and have seen a big uptick in production from their pass rush after getting DL DeForest Buckner back into their lineup. Overall, the Colts have landed 10 sacks over their last four games and face a Jets team with an aging, immobile QB.
From a DFS perspective, this has generally been a solid DST to target at these prices. The Colts have returned 10.0 or more DKFP in three games this season, and have averaged 11.0 DKFP over their last two games (since the return of Buckner). I don’t see any reason why they can’t continue to produce in this spot against the dysfunctional Jets who are just 26th in points per game on offense and have averaged just 16.3 points over their last three games, the second-worst mark in the league behind the Bears over that span.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers sho
