Cedric Tillman was a player that I backed in the prop market in his last two games prior to Cleveland’s bye. Even with his numbers, I’m going right back to him, as well as another play in this game. Let’s breakdown a pair of plays below.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
This is an absolutely fantastic spot to back the Browns for a number of reasons. Jameis Winston came in and led the team to a big upset win over the Ravens in his first start, and as tends to happen the next week, Cleveland got a reality check from the Chargers. Now the Browns are off both a blowout loss in their last game and a bye. Two full weeks to chew on that loss, while prepping for a Saints team that’s been one of the worst teams in the NFL if you throw the first two weeks out the window.
New Orleans made a big change of its own, firing Dennis Allen after an embarrassing loss to the Panthers. As tends to happen in that situation, the team rallied and upset the Falcons on Sunday. Now it’s the Saints in that “reality check” situation, going up against a Cleveland team that should be extremely well prepared. I expect the Browns to really get after the quarterback and make life very difficult for the Saints on offense. New Orleans also ranks just 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, and just traded their top cornerback away in Marshon Lattimore. I’m expecting the Browns to cruise in this one, and that last piece of analysis transitions us right into my other play in this game.
PLAY: Browns ML (+100) 2-units
Cedric Tillman has been my guy when it comes to props over the last few weeks in the NFL. With the Browns trading Amari Cooper to Buffalo, it’s been Tillman that steps right into that role. But with the quarterback upgrade to Winston, Tillman has been outproducing the numbers Cooper was putting up, and has evolved into the team’s WR1.
In the three games since Cooper was traded, Tillman leads the Browns receivers in targets (32), receptions (21), receiving yards (255) and touchdowns (3). That’s an average of 85 yards per game on over 10 targets, with his worst game coming last week — a 6-75-1 line against the solid secondary of the Chargers.
This week’s matchup is much more similar to the Baltimore matchup, going against a poor secondary that just lost a key piece. Tillman cooked the Ravens for a 7-99-2 line in what was his best game of the season. As I mentioned, New Orleans is giving up the 29th-most yards through the air to begin with, and we should only see that drop off with Lattimore in Washington.
Look for Tillman to continue to feast on secondaries. Consider laddering some of his props and playing a SGP with Tillman to score a touchdown.
PLAY: Cedric Tillman OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 2-units
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
