These are my picks to win every Week 11 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 11 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Lions over Jaguars – The Lions are massive double-digit favorites of the Jaguars this week. Mac Jones is in line to start for Jacksonville again and he had multiple disastrous turnovers against the Vikings last week. The Detroit offense is on fire and they should be able to score with ease against the Jaguars and put up a number that Mac Jones could never reach.
Texans over Cowboys – The Texans have lost a couple of games in a row but they played well against Detroit despite not closing the game out. They should get Nico Collins back for this game which will give their offense a massive boost. That should be enough to push them over the line against a Cowboys team that is in a really bad spot in their season. Cooper Rush is not capable of putting up the numbers needed to defeat CJ Stroud and this Texans offense.
Dolphins over Raiders – The Dolphins picked up a nice win over the Rams last week and were very close to taking down the Bills on the road in the game before that. With Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback, this offense looks closer to what everyone thought it would before the season. They have a great rushing attack and should be able to completely control this game against a shaky Las Vegas defense. Gardner Minshew is going to start for the Raiders again but he has really struggled in recent weeks and Miami should be able to contain their offense.
Vikings over Titans – The Vikings didn’t play their best last week against the Jaguars but found a way to win which is what good teams do. The Titans are a disaster and an overtime victory over the Patriots is their only win since September. The Minnesota offense should start to find some rhythm again in this game and if Sam Darnold can avoid turnovers, this should be a really comfortable win for them. The Minnesota defense has been fantastic all year and proved how dominant they can be against a quarterback like Mac Jones last week. Will Levis falls into that same category of quarterbacks that could be tortured by Brian Flores and this defense.
49ers over Seahawks – San Francisco picked up an important win last week and started to ease Christian McCaffrey back into the offense. McCaffrey should get even more action in this game against Seattle and that should get this offense to hit another gear. However, Seattle being bad is the real issue here. After starting the season 3-0, the Seahawks have lost five of their last six games. Their defense can’t stop anything through the air and they aren’t scoring enough to hang with these teams that are scoring so effortlessly.
Medium Confidence
Packers over Bears – The Packers had a bye week and should be really fresh coming into this game. Meanwhile, the Bears are in free fall having lost three straight games which led to the firing of their offensive coordinator. This offense might improve without Shane Waldron in the long run but they are in a tough spot with the real problem still wearing a headset on the sideline. The Packers should comfortably take care of business in this one.
Rams over Patriots – The Rams broke their three-game winning streak against the Dolphins last week. However, this is a good spot for them to bounce back against the Patriots. The Patriots are playing better but Los Angeles should have too much offense for them. As they continue to build back after getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, they should keep getting better on that side of the ball. Unless Drake Maye plays a flawless game, the Rams should have too much firepower for New England.
Jets over Colts – The Jets are a disaster at the moment but so are the Colts. The Colts have lost three straight games and are totally lost on offense. The Jets have been much better at home than on the road this season and should look a bit better on offense in their own building. However, Anthony Richardson is way too mistake-prone and bringing him back after benching him for multiple weeks could have him in a bad mental space. Anything could happen with these two teams but if the Jets play reasonably well they should get a home win.
Ravens over Steelers – The Ravens’ offense is on fire. They have scored 30+ points in six of their past seven games. The Steelers have a tough defensive unit but the Ravens have been able to put up big numbers on basically everybody this season. The Ravens have some issues in their secondary but I expect their defense to improve in the second half of the season. This should be a tight game but ultimately Lamar Jackson will make the winning plays for Baltimore.
Eagles over Commanders – This is another exciting divisional matchup with first place on the line. The Eagles are just playing at a very high level at the moment. Their offense is clicking with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley both playing exceptionally. The Commanders have survived a few shaky performances this year. Despite how great Jayden Daniels has been, they are not as good as their record reflects. The Eagles should be more physical than them and should be able to put up a decent amount of points in this game.
Coin-Flip Games
Broncos over Falcons – This should be a tight game between two teams that are both capable of playing great or terrible any given week. However, the Broncos are the home team and have the better defense so they are the safer pick here. If Bo Nix can avoid mistakes as he has done the past couple of weeks, the Denver defense should do their part of the job and shut down Atlanta.
Browns over Saints – This is another game between two teams that look different every week. That being said, the Browns are coming off of a bye week and should be really fresh and ready for this game. After having a couple of weeks to build up and then getting some rest, Nick Chubb should have his best game since returning from injury. The Cleveland pass rush should also get after Derek Carr and make life difficult for him and the Saints offense.
Bills over Chiefs – These two teams have played some amazing matchups over the past few years and this should be another great one. Despite their records, the Bills are playing much better football than the Chiefs. The Kansas City offense can’t create anything explosive and basically has no running game. If the Bills can take away Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins then this offense is in big trouble. The Bills’ offense has been on a roll, scoring 30+ points in four straight games. They should be able to take care of business at home but this is still a coin-flip game as long as Mahomes is on the other side.
Bengals over Chargers – The Bengals are the opposite of the Chiefs. They play really well every week but just find a way to lose. That being said, the Chargers’ offense doesn’t have the explosiveness to take advantage of the Bengals’ defensive issues. Joe Burrow is arguably the best quarterback in the NFL at the moment and the Bengals have nothing to lose. Burrow should let it rip and things are due to finally break the Bengals’ way.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
